posted 15 hours, 12 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 1 minute ago
So you spent £20?
Do that every set of fixtures and how much have you spent?
It’s fine TOOR. You’ll spend hours arguing something but you won’t spend 2 mins a week posting your selections. We all know why.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well yes I spent £20 but we're talking about profit. I spent £10, lost it. Got a free fiver, turned it into around £90. Withdrew £70, then spent the remaining £20, which i turned into around six or seven hundred. So in actual terms I spent £10.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, we’re talking about what you’d need to win to cover your expenditure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't know what metric you're using Winston but I'm talking about profit. How much I put in against how much I took out. I'm certainly not counting a free fiver as money I put in or twenty pounds I used from winnings. I always do a few bets from winnings before withdrawing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I replied to your post where you said £500 would cover your spend.
Taking it ‘from your winnings’ doesn’t mean it’s not spend. Jesus wept.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
My spend is what i put into the account. Two or three wins covers my spend with profit. Why in the world when I'm talking about profit and two or three wins covering what I've put in plus profit, would I consider something I haven't actually put in? Jesus wept indeed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Depends if you’re claiming your winnings as profit without deducting your losing bets.
If you’ve made £100 but spunked half of it on new bets then you’re not £100 up, are you?
posted 15 hours, 10 minutes ago
Not advice as I've never hit one but I always found doing full backs to make tackles or get yellows is a good one. Stay away from centre backs as its surprising how few tackles they actually make and are the worst odds. Strikers to have shots on target can also be misleading and poor odds. I always tried to do these things and then put one out there kind of thing in like a centre back to score or a team to win but the other team have the most shots, most corners and most yellow cards. Explains why I've never won one as I always end up about 1000/1
posted 15 hours, 9 minutes ago
comment by kinsang (U3346)
posted 7 seconds ago
I don't know if any bookies do this, but PP's player sub for bet builders is a real game changer - so if your initial choice is subbed off, replacement takes over - keeps you interested and it's worked out for me a couple of times
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes my bookmaker friend has done well from these and wants me to do them. I'm banned from PP. Admin2 too.
I actually turned £20 to £200 on Paddy power for Raptor on here around 2012. Just to prove it I had an edge with them, I left him with £200 and a live £20 bet on spurs to 2-1 @7/1 as a bonus. They didn't.
posted 15 hours, 9 minutes ago
comment by kinsang (U3346)
posted 3 minutes ago
I don't know if any bookies do this, but PP's player sub for bet builders is a real game changer - so if your initial choice is subbed off, replacement takes over - keeps you interested and it's worked out for me a couple of times
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I heard about this the other week on here. I dont have a PaddyPower account, had one years ago and can't log in, when I try to set up a new account it tells me I already have an account. Tried a couple of years ago going through the chat but that didn't help either.
posted 15 hours, 6 minutes ago
comment by Insufferable-Piffle (U4388)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 4 minutes ago
Ill not get in to an argument. If you are a good bettor then you should be able to see a long term trend upwards betting singles until you get banned. If you bet accas with the exception of miss price 1/6 type you'll almost never get banned.
I can only bet on Betfair exchange these days, and on their sports book I'll build up to £500 then blow it the £150 bets on 80/1 type bets so if I get banned it's for a decent win.
I run genetic algorithms, custom AI odds models and monte Carlo simulations and barely hold on. I consult with a bookmaker too.
SKB is probably the best tipster I've seen I'm a few thousand to the good from his bets. Albeit it's cost me a few betting accounts. Coral and Betfred 🤣
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's unlikely I'll ever get banned from an account but how nippy is it that bookies close winning accounts? Cheeky bastirts, happy to take your cash when you lost though?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A friend of mine did mostly horse singles. He kept a book and wrote down winners and who they were up against, ground etc.
However that wasn't what made it profitable. Every week he'd receive free bets from various accounts and rather than spending it there and then he'd do ante post on the big races. By the time the races came around he'd have half the field covered. He'd make thousands profit every year. This lasted a few years and then he started getting banned from the sites one by one.
posted 15 hours, 5 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 1 minute ago
So you spent £20?
Do that every set of fixtures and how much have you spent?
It’s fine TOOR. You’ll spend hours arguing something but you won’t spend 2 mins a week posting your selections. We all know why.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well yes I spent £20 but we're talking about profit. I spent £10, lost it. Got a free fiver, turned it into around £90. Withdrew £70, then spent the remaining £20, which i turned into around six or seven hundred. So in actual terms I spent £10.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, we’re talking about what you’d need to win to cover your expenditure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't know what metric you're using Winston but I'm talking about profit. How much I put in against how much I took out. I'm certainly not counting a free fiver as money I put in or twenty pounds I used from winnings. I always do a few bets from winnings before withdrawing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I replied to your post where you said £500 would cover your spend.
Taking it ‘from your winnings’ doesn’t mean it’s not spend. Jesus wept.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
My spend is what i put into the account. Two or three wins covers my spend with profit. Why in the world when I'm talking about profit and two or three wins covering what I've put in plus profit, would I consider something I haven't actually put in? Jesus wept indeed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Depends if you’re claiming your winnings as profit without deducting your losing bets.
If you’ve made £100 but spunked half of it on new bets then you’re not £100 up, are you?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, I wasn't doing that. Not gonna lie and say I have never done more than a £10 bet in a week this season but it has been rare, unless I've won a bet, then I'll do a few from the winnings.
posted 15 hours, 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 21 seconds ago
comment by Insufferable-Piffle (U4388)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 4 minutes ago
Ill not get in to an argument. If you are a good bettor then you should be able to see a long term trend upwards betting singles until you get banned. If you bet accas with the exception of miss price 1/6 type you'll almost never get banned.
I can only bet on Betfair exchange these days, and on their sports book I'll build up to £500 then blow it the £150 bets on 80/1 type bets so if I get banned it's for a decent win.
I run genetic algorithms, custom AI odds models and monte Carlo simulations and barely hold on. I consult with a bookmaker too.
SKB is probably the best tipster I've seen I'm a few thousand to the good from his bets. Albeit it's cost me a few betting accounts. Coral and Betfred 🤣
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's unlikely I'll ever get banned from an account but how nippy is it that bookies close winning accounts? Cheeky bastirts, happy to take your cash when you lost though?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A friend of mine did mostly horse singles. He kept a book and wrote down winners and who they were up against, ground etc.
However that wasn't what made it profitable. Every week he'd receive free bets from various accounts and rather than spending it there and then he'd do ante post on the big races. By the time the races came around he'd have half the field covered. He'd make thousands profit every year. This lasted a few years and then he started getting banned from the sites one by one.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bookies like to make up the rules as they go along, I dont bet the horses or the dugs and no longer go to the tracks but I remember them moving the goal posts as they saw fit and the closing of winning accounts is similar, robbing bastirts
posted 15 hours, 3 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
posted 14 hours, 59 minutes ago
My brother and I hit PP for six figures on financial betting they pulled it from their site. My brother ruined it by getting too greedy.
New car, holidays to Vegas, Hong Kong, kitchens, bathrooms etc. But I told him on the condition he didn't rely on it as an income and adjust his lifestyle
posted 14 hours, 53 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
posted 14 hours, 49 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I know a lot more about the industry than you.
It’d be one thing if you were claiming a one off lucky season. But you’re not. And you’re either lying or genuinely deluding yourself into believing you’re always in profit.
Anyone who bets like you do, doesn’t win long term. That’s just a fact.
And you not posting your selections says it all.
posted 14 hours, 46 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
posted 14 hours, 45 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I know a lot more about the industry than you.
It’d be one thing if you were claiming a one off lucky season. But you’re not. And you’re either lying or genuinely deluding yourself into believing you’re always in profit.
Anyone who bets like you do, doesn’t win long term. That’s just a fact.
And you not posting your selections says it all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Just agreed to disagree. Better for both of you guys
posted 14 hours, 44 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I know a lot more about the industry than you.
It’d be one thing if you were claiming a one off lucky season. But you’re not. And you’re either lying or genuinely deluding yourself into believing you’re always in profit.
Anyone who bets like you do, doesn’t win long term. That’s just a fact.
And you not posting your selections says it all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well yes this season has been my best so far. I'm not claiming every season is like this. I'm claiming most seasons I turn a profit. A few seasons I haven't had any big win so didn't turn a profit. It's not as far-fetched as you think it is despite how much of an expert you seem to think you are.
posted 14 hours, 43 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 39 seconds ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I know a lot more about the industry than you.
It’d be one thing if you were claiming a one off lucky season. But you’re not. And you’re either lying or genuinely deluding yourself into believing you’re always in profit.
Anyone who bets like you do, doesn’t win long term. That’s just a fact.
And you not posting your selections says it all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well yes this season has been my best so far. I'm not claiming every season is like this. I'm claiming most seasons I turn a profit. A few seasons I haven't had any big win so didn't turn a profit. It's not as far-fetched as you think it is despite how much of an expert you seem to think you are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And that claim is false.
You won’t post your bets because it’ll prove me right.
posted 14 hours, 40 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
posted 14 hours, 38 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
posted 14 hours, 38 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 37 minutes ago
Ill not get in to an argument. If you are a good bettor then you should be able to see a long term trend upwards betting singles until you get banned. If you bet accas with the exception of miss price 1/6 type you'll almost never get banned.
I can only bet on Betfair exchange these days, and on their sports book I'll build up to £500 then blow it the £150 bets on 80/1 type bets so if I get banned it's for a decent win.
I run genetic algorithms, custom AI odds models and monte Carlo simulations and barely hold on. I consult with a bookmaker too.
SKB is probably the best tipster I've seen I'm a few thousand to the good from his bets. Albeit it's cost me a few betting accounts. Coral and Betfred 🤣
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I appreciate what you do admin1, but that's just too much work for me and takes some of the fun out of it. I'm sure you get a great buzz out of it, and I say good on you.
But once you start talking about algorithms and AI models etc, it's just beyond me.
And as you said later, if you get too greedy / win too much, the bookies will stop you playing
posted 14 hours, 37 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 8 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
posted 14 hours, 35 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I've made that mistake a couple of times, normally after a win. If i win an odd amount, say £230, take out £200, leave in £30 for later bets, have a few drinks and say ah let's have a go at the casino. Five minutes later I'm back to zero
posted 14 hours, 33 minutes ago
If anyone is interested https://www.top100bookmakers.com/betting-margins/
If you want to get banned on say marathon bet who has a small football margin. Bet a £20 single three days before kick off and there is a good chance your account with get restricted quick style.
posted 14 hours, 33 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So how do you make money? Do like a hundred bets in a week? Or do you do it just for the fun of seeing your models working out?
posted 14 hours, 29 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So how do you make money? Do like a hundred bets in a week? Or do you do it just for the fun of seeing your models working out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I probably place 3 bets a day maximum and any generous options like money back promos. It's just for fun.
posted 14 hours, 28 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 28 seconds ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So how do you make money? Do like a hundred bets in a week? Or do you do it just for the fun of seeing your models working out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I probably place 3 bets a day maximum and any generous options like money back promos. It's just for fun.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
posted 14 hours, 25 minutes ago
If you are betting more than £100 a year this book is a must
https://highstakespublishing.co.uk/bookpage.php?isbn=9781843440673
Sign in if you want to comment
Help me beat the bookies
Page 7 of 8
6 | 7 | 8
posted 15 hours, 12 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 1 minute ago
So you spent £20?
Do that every set of fixtures and how much have you spent?
It’s fine TOOR. You’ll spend hours arguing something but you won’t spend 2 mins a week posting your selections. We all know why.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well yes I spent £20 but we're talking about profit. I spent £10, lost it. Got a free fiver, turned it into around £90. Withdrew £70, then spent the remaining £20, which i turned into around six or seven hundred. So in actual terms I spent £10.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, we’re talking about what you’d need to win to cover your expenditure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't know what metric you're using Winston but I'm talking about profit. How much I put in against how much I took out. I'm certainly not counting a free fiver as money I put in or twenty pounds I used from winnings. I always do a few bets from winnings before withdrawing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I replied to your post where you said £500 would cover your spend.
Taking it ‘from your winnings’ doesn’t mean it’s not spend. Jesus wept.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
My spend is what i put into the account. Two or three wins covers my spend with profit. Why in the world when I'm talking about profit and two or three wins covering what I've put in plus profit, would I consider something I haven't actually put in? Jesus wept indeed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Depends if you’re claiming your winnings as profit without deducting your losing bets.
If you’ve made £100 but spunked half of it on new bets then you’re not £100 up, are you?
posted 15 hours, 10 minutes ago
Not advice as I've never hit one but I always found doing full backs to make tackles or get yellows is a good one. Stay away from centre backs as its surprising how few tackles they actually make and are the worst odds. Strikers to have shots on target can also be misleading and poor odds. I always tried to do these things and then put one out there kind of thing in like a centre back to score or a team to win but the other team have the most shots, most corners and most yellow cards. Explains why I've never won one as I always end up about 1000/1
posted 15 hours, 9 minutes ago
comment by kinsang (U3346)
posted 7 seconds ago
I don't know if any bookies do this, but PP's player sub for bet builders is a real game changer - so if your initial choice is subbed off, replacement takes over - keeps you interested and it's worked out for me a couple of times
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes my bookmaker friend has done well from these and wants me to do them. I'm banned from PP. Admin2 too.
I actually turned £20 to £200 on Paddy power for Raptor on here around 2012. Just to prove it I had an edge with them, I left him with £200 and a live £20 bet on spurs to 2-1 @7/1 as a bonus. They didn't.
posted 15 hours, 9 minutes ago
comment by kinsang (U3346)
posted 3 minutes ago
I don't know if any bookies do this, but PP's player sub for bet builders is a real game changer - so if your initial choice is subbed off, replacement takes over - keeps you interested and it's worked out for me a couple of times
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I heard about this the other week on here. I dont have a PaddyPower account, had one years ago and can't log in, when I try to set up a new account it tells me I already have an account. Tried a couple of years ago going through the chat but that didn't help either.
posted 15 hours, 6 minutes ago
comment by Insufferable-Piffle (U4388)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 4 minutes ago
Ill not get in to an argument. If you are a good bettor then you should be able to see a long term trend upwards betting singles until you get banned. If you bet accas with the exception of miss price 1/6 type you'll almost never get banned.
I can only bet on Betfair exchange these days, and on their sports book I'll build up to £500 then blow it the £150 bets on 80/1 type bets so if I get banned it's for a decent win.
I run genetic algorithms, custom AI odds models and monte Carlo simulations and barely hold on. I consult with a bookmaker too.
SKB is probably the best tipster I've seen I'm a few thousand to the good from his bets. Albeit it's cost me a few betting accounts. Coral and Betfred 🤣
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's unlikely I'll ever get banned from an account but how nippy is it that bookies close winning accounts? Cheeky bastirts, happy to take your cash when you lost though?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A friend of mine did mostly horse singles. He kept a book and wrote down winners and who they were up against, ground etc.
However that wasn't what made it profitable. Every week he'd receive free bets from various accounts and rather than spending it there and then he'd do ante post on the big races. By the time the races came around he'd have half the field covered. He'd make thousands profit every year. This lasted a few years and then he started getting banned from the sites one by one.
posted 15 hours, 5 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 1 minute ago
So you spent £20?
Do that every set of fixtures and how much have you spent?
It’s fine TOOR. You’ll spend hours arguing something but you won’t spend 2 mins a week posting your selections. We all know why.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well yes I spent £20 but we're talking about profit. I spent £10, lost it. Got a free fiver, turned it into around £90. Withdrew £70, then spent the remaining £20, which i turned into around six or seven hundred. So in actual terms I spent £10.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, we’re talking about what you’d need to win to cover your expenditure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't know what metric you're using Winston but I'm talking about profit. How much I put in against how much I took out. I'm certainly not counting a free fiver as money I put in or twenty pounds I used from winnings. I always do a few bets from winnings before withdrawing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I replied to your post where you said £500 would cover your spend.
Taking it ‘from your winnings’ doesn’t mean it’s not spend. Jesus wept.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
My spend is what i put into the account. Two or three wins covers my spend with profit. Why in the world when I'm talking about profit and two or three wins covering what I've put in plus profit, would I consider something I haven't actually put in? Jesus wept indeed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Depends if you’re claiming your winnings as profit without deducting your losing bets.
If you’ve made £100 but spunked half of it on new bets then you’re not £100 up, are you?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, I wasn't doing that. Not gonna lie and say I have never done more than a £10 bet in a week this season but it has been rare, unless I've won a bet, then I'll do a few from the winnings.
posted 15 hours, 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 21 seconds ago
comment by Insufferable-Piffle (U4388)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 4 minutes ago
Ill not get in to an argument. If you are a good bettor then you should be able to see a long term trend upwards betting singles until you get banned. If you bet accas with the exception of miss price 1/6 type you'll almost never get banned.
I can only bet on Betfair exchange these days, and on their sports book I'll build up to £500 then blow it the £150 bets on 80/1 type bets so if I get banned it's for a decent win.
I run genetic algorithms, custom AI odds models and monte Carlo simulations and barely hold on. I consult with a bookmaker too.
SKB is probably the best tipster I've seen I'm a few thousand to the good from his bets. Albeit it's cost me a few betting accounts. Coral and Betfred 🤣
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's unlikely I'll ever get banned from an account but how nippy is it that bookies close winning accounts? Cheeky bastirts, happy to take your cash when you lost though?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A friend of mine did mostly horse singles. He kept a book and wrote down winners and who they were up against, ground etc.
However that wasn't what made it profitable. Every week he'd receive free bets from various accounts and rather than spending it there and then he'd do ante post on the big races. By the time the races came around he'd have half the field covered. He'd make thousands profit every year. This lasted a few years and then he started getting banned from the sites one by one.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bookies like to make up the rules as they go along, I dont bet the horses or the dugs and no longer go to the tracks but I remember them moving the goal posts as they saw fit and the closing of winning accounts is similar, robbing bastirts
posted 15 hours, 3 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
posted 14 hours, 59 minutes ago
My brother and I hit PP for six figures on financial betting they pulled it from their site. My brother ruined it by getting too greedy.
New car, holidays to Vegas, Hong Kong, kitchens, bathrooms etc. But I told him on the condition he didn't rely on it as an income and adjust his lifestyle
posted 14 hours, 53 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
posted 14 hours, 49 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I know a lot more about the industry than you.
It’d be one thing if you were claiming a one off lucky season. But you’re not. And you’re either lying or genuinely deluding yourself into believing you’re always in profit.
Anyone who bets like you do, doesn’t win long term. That’s just a fact.
And you not posting your selections says it all.
posted 14 hours, 46 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
posted 14 hours, 45 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I know a lot more about the industry than you.
It’d be one thing if you were claiming a one off lucky season. But you’re not. And you’re either lying or genuinely deluding yourself into believing you’re always in profit.
Anyone who bets like you do, doesn’t win long term. That’s just a fact.
And you not posting your selections says it all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Just agreed to disagree. Better for both of you guys
posted 14 hours, 44 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I know a lot more about the industry than you.
It’d be one thing if you were claiming a one off lucky season. But you’re not. And you’re either lying or genuinely deluding yourself into believing you’re always in profit.
Anyone who bets like you do, doesn’t win long term. That’s just a fact.
And you not posting your selections says it all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well yes this season has been my best so far. I'm not claiming every season is like this. I'm claiming most seasons I turn a profit. A few seasons I haven't had any big win so didn't turn a profit. It's not as far-fetched as you think it is despite how much of an expert you seem to think you are.
posted 14 hours, 43 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 39 seconds ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 5 minutes ago
Ultimately it’s semantics, TOOR.
The main point is what you bet, how you do it and that you lose.
You’ll never admit it. You won’t post your bets. So here we are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I'm not going admit I lose whilst profiting nearly £5k so far this season. That would be weird.
I posted a couple of bets which more than covered what I put in and then added profit but you've decided I've bet over £2k this season on football, which would actually have to be nearly £5k for me not to be in profit.
No point continuing this as you've decided that nobody can win over a season doing accumulators which is nonsense of course. Normally there won't be big winnings but you can certainly turn a profit most years and even some years like this one make a good profit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I know a lot more about the industry than you.
It’d be one thing if you were claiming a one off lucky season. But you’re not. And you’re either lying or genuinely deluding yourself into believing you’re always in profit.
Anyone who bets like you do, doesn’t win long term. That’s just a fact.
And you not posting your selections says it all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well yes this season has been my best so far. I'm not claiming every season is like this. I'm claiming most seasons I turn a profit. A few seasons I haven't had any big win so didn't turn a profit. It's not as far-fetched as you think it is despite how much of an expert you seem to think you are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And that claim is false.
You won’t post your bets because it’ll prove me right.
posted 14 hours, 40 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
posted 14 hours, 38 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
posted 14 hours, 38 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 37 minutes ago
Ill not get in to an argument. If you are a good bettor then you should be able to see a long term trend upwards betting singles until you get banned. If you bet accas with the exception of miss price 1/6 type you'll almost never get banned.
I can only bet on Betfair exchange these days, and on their sports book I'll build up to £500 then blow it the £150 bets on 80/1 type bets so if I get banned it's for a decent win.
I run genetic algorithms, custom AI odds models and monte Carlo simulations and barely hold on. I consult with a bookmaker too.
SKB is probably the best tipster I've seen I'm a few thousand to the good from his bets. Albeit it's cost me a few betting accounts. Coral and Betfred 🤣
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I appreciate what you do admin1, but that's just too much work for me and takes some of the fun out of it. I'm sure you get a great buzz out of it, and I say good on you.
But once you start talking about algorithms and AI models etc, it's just beyond me.
And as you said later, if you get too greedy / win too much, the bookies will stop you playing
posted 14 hours, 37 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 8 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
posted 14 hours, 35 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I've made that mistake a couple of times, normally after a win. If i win an odd amount, say £230, take out £200, leave in £30 for later bets, have a few drinks and say ah let's have a go at the casino. Five minutes later I'm back to zero
posted 14 hours, 33 minutes ago
If anyone is interested https://www.top100bookmakers.com/betting-margins/
If you want to get banned on say marathon bet who has a small football margin. Bet a £20 single three days before kick off and there is a good chance your account with get restricted quick style.
posted 14 hours, 33 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So how do you make money? Do like a hundred bets in a week? Or do you do it just for the fun of seeing your models working out?
posted 14 hours, 29 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So how do you make money? Do like a hundred bets in a week? Or do you do it just for the fun of seeing your models working out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I probably place 3 bets a day maximum and any generous options like money back promos. It's just for fun.
posted 14 hours, 28 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 28 seconds ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by TheresOnlyOne7-0Reds (U1721)
posted 4 seconds ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
https://www.rowdie.co.uk/how-accumulator-margins-compound-calculating-the-bookmakers-edge/
It's incredibly difficult to get an edge on an ACCA due to the compounding effect of the Vig. As bookmakers being 20+ percent wrong on their ACCA odds is really big ask. Even with some wins, to get a statistically significant P value from acca wins has been impossible for me. I have tried on and off over the years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I definitely agree if you're in it for the money it's not worthwhile as winnings if any are normally minimal. I just do it for fun. I'm not a high earner but I know people who do massive bets that I could never do on singles and turn good profit. Also known people who have lost out in a very bad, life-changing way. I guess when you raise the stakes you need to reduce the risk and accumulators certainly aren't low risk.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll not bet much more than £10 on a single.
My issue if I'm bored and drunk I can waste my balance on casino games after being offered 10 free spins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So how do you make money? Do like a hundred bets in a week? Or do you do it just for the fun of seeing your models working out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I probably place 3 bets a day maximum and any generous options like money back promos. It's just for fun.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
posted 14 hours, 25 minutes ago
If you are betting more than £100 a year this book is a must
https://highstakespublishing.co.uk/bookpage.php?isbn=9781843440673
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