Masssive result at St Mary's. Not worried about Ipswich as their run-in looks pretty tough to me, with away games at Hull, Coventry, Norwich and Southampton. Three points against Leicester and I think we are truly in the driving seat. Also, to some extent, the pressure not to lose is eased a little by Southampton losing. Most importantly, it's still in our hands. MOT.
comment by Stoopo (U4707)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Shaun M - supercalifragilisticOrtaisatrocious (U9955)
posted 4 minutes ago
Champions mentality that is. We have to still be favourites given Saints are really inconsistent atm.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Win on Friday and we will end up winning the damn thing!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agreed, Stoopo
Looking at the Southampton Hull game, ain't it good Meslier wasn't in goal?..
FFS, on about mistakes, never seen that many in one game, if I was the trainer I'd sack the whole feckin lot off em!..
Both keepers were bad with their distribution, but Southamptons along with their defence at times, was a comedy off errors!..
comment by LufcGermany (U6066)
posted 3 minutes ago
Looking at the Southampton Hull game, ain't it good Meslier wasn't in goal?..
FFS, on about mistakes, never seen that many in one game, if I was the trainer I'd sack the whole feckin lot off em!..
Both keepers were bad with their distribution, but Southamptons along with their defence at times, was a comedy off errors!..
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agreed.
"Win on Friday and we will end up winning the damn thing!"
2nd is now ours to lose, but I have said before, we shouldn't be looking at 2nd, 3rd or 4th, we should be looking at first!..
Wow, we were behind 3 teams when I said that!.
Only just seen the results and like everyone else on here delighted that Southampton slipped up to Hull and Ipswich only won by a last gasp effort so we can't have many complaints about the footballing gods being generally kind to us so now we have to go for the jugular Friday night and really put on a show of all shows and make it nine on the trot!
I think others at this moment in time are more worried about us than us about them!..
Or at least should be!..
A win against Leicester would be such a statement win, wouldn't it?
Great, great result for us last night in Southampton - well done Hull! My cousins are diehard Saints fans - they're GUTTED!
As I pointed out to them, it's telling that at this point, all of the top four have scored roughly the same number of goals but whereas Ipswich and Southampton have conceded around 40 or more, us and Leicester have only conceded 26.
It's all the more impressive considering the slow start to the season we had and the need for new manager and players to find their feet.
Three points on Friday (and another clean sheet!) would be sensational - doing the double over the league leaders at this point! Ipswich and Southampton seem to have wobbled at just the right time.
Onwards and UPWARDS!
Right, time I think to have a more detailed look at remaining fixtures.
Have split each teams fixtures into those versus a top 12 team or a bottom 12 team, only because it’s probably the games against teams in the top half that will be the matches that are more likely to generates something other than a win for each of the top 4 sides. Not impossible, but more likely.
LEEDS
Against top 12
2 away :
- Coventry 7th
- Watford 11th
4 at home :
- Leicester 1st
- Southampton 4th
- Hull 6th
- Sunderland 10th
Against bottom 12
4 away :
- Middlesbrough 13th
- Huddersfield 20th
- QPR 22rd
- Sheff Wed 23rd
3 home :
- Blackburn 16th
- Stoke 19th
- Millwall 21st
SOUTHAMPTON
Against top 12
3 away
Leicester 1st
Leeds 2nd
Ipswich 3rd
4 home
Coventry 7th
Preston 9th
Sunderland 10th
Watford 11th
Against bottom 12
3 away :
- Cardiff 14th
- Birmingham 15th
- Blackburn 16th
3 home :
- Middlesbrough 13th
- Stoke 19th
- Millwall 21st
IPSWICH
Against top 12
3 away :
- Hull 6th
- Coventry 7th
- Norwich 8th
3 home :
- Southampton 4th
- Watford 11th
- Bristol C 12th
Against bottom 12
3 away :
Cardiff 14th
Blackburn 16th
Plymouth 17th
4 home :
Middlesbrough 13th
Birmingham 15th
Huddersfield 20th
Sheff Wed 23rd
LEICESTER
Against top 12
5 away :
- Leeds 2nd
- Hull 6th
- Preston 9th
- Sunderland 10th
- Bristol 12th
3 home :
- Southampton 4th
- West Brom 5th
- Norwich 8th
Against bottom 12
2 away :
- Plymouth 17th
- Millwall 21st
3 home :
- Birmingham 15th
- Blackburn 16th
- QPR 22nd
Took me a while to collate all this, but first feel suggests our fixtures are not the hardest of the 4 teams.
But when I’ve got a minute to have a proper look at the detail, I’m gonna go through and do a bit of my own result forecasting.
Should be interesting.
salonika, maybe this'll help!..
https://www.kicker.de/championship/tabellenrechner
I'd think you've more than likely got something the same in English but if not it is easy to use!..
Looks to me that at the moment, taking the home and away out of the equation Ipswich and ourselves have slightly easier run-ins than Southampton with Leicester the hardest but it's marginal.
One big caveat, after the international break it all changes, our fixtures become that much harder, in the world of must wins, we must win or pick up most points from the next few because after that the season looks a lot harder.
Ignore home v away?
Think actually that’s the critical point
Looking at points per game (PPG) as a measure of the strength of opponents …
Ipswich
Opponents they will face at home have a PPG whilst away of 1.15.
But opponents they face will face away have a home PPG of 1.61
Leicester
Home they face teams with PPG of 1.15
When away, opponents have a home PPG of 1.67
Leeds
When at home, our opponents have an average 1.41 PPG
When we play away, the home team PPG is 1.28
Southampton
At Home they face teams with away form of PPG 1.20
Away the home team PPG is 1.90
So clearly, we face much easier teams away than the other 3, but face slightly harder teams than them at home.
I think we all rather gave the harder teams to play at home rather than away.
I see nothing in the home or away thing, because things can work for or against it everytime!..
We're having a great run at this moment, and that runs down to the form you're in on the day, so, we only have to show the form that we have been doing now and let the luck decide how things end!..
If we find a way to turn our woodwork shots into goals than no problem!..
comment by salonika73 (U4688)
posted 6 hours, 59 minutes ago
Ignore home v away?
Think actually that’s the critical point
Looking at points per game (PPG) as a measure of the strength of opponents …
Ipswich
Opponents they will face at home have a PPG whilst away of 1.15.
But opponents they face will face away have a home PPG of 1.61
Leicester
Home they face teams with PPG of 1.15
When away, opponents have a home PPG of 1.67
Leeds
When at home, our opponents have an average 1.41 PPG
When we play away, the home team PPG is 1.28
Southampton
At Home they face teams with away form of PPG 1.20
Away the home team PPG is 1.90
So clearly, we face much easier teams away than the other 3, but face slightly harder teams than them at home.
I think we all rather gave the harder teams to play at home rather than away.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Our home form has been the bedrock of our season so you cannot disregard it.
I was just pointing out how after Leicester we have a couple of easy games and then there is the international break followed by Millwall, Watford, Hull, Coventry, Sunderland, Blackburn, Middlebrough, QPR and Soutthampton. Three teams in the bottom half and six in top half.
All where you draw your cut off point.
March looks easy April not so easy.
Agree Dennis.
But we’ve got 6 against the top 12 teams, of which 4 are at home
Ipswich got 6 also against top 12 teams, but only 3 at home
Southampton got 7, 4 at home
Leicester got 8 matches against top 12 and only 3 at home
No one is saying we have got it easy. Just think the other teams have got slightly more to worry about, which is better than the other way around
One game at a time, that's my motto.
All this looking ahead hurts my brain.
i can see us smashing the foxes 3-0
what are the odds? put a tenner on it
comment by kammys left foot / mbe (U21862)
posted 2 minutes ago
i can see us smashing the foxes 3-0
what are the odds? put a tenner on it
----------------
not really one for a flutter, but I do fancy us to win 3-0... just think we'll have too much for em.
Opta's analysis is very interesting, a couple of things jump out at me, we are now second favourites to win promotion. Under two months ago, 29th December, Ipswich were 57.7% 2nd favourites and we were 21.6%. We are now 58.8% second favourites.
As they say "it’s going to be a gut punch for at least one of those sides (Leicester, ourselves, Ipswich or Southampton) to miss out on promotion to the Premier League at the end of the campaign".
Given how quickly things can change, as illustrated above, I am reluctant to get involved in the tub-thumping that is going on regarding about cretainty of us getting promoted.
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/02/championship-table-expected-points/
Bored, I went through the fixtures of the 4 teams to guess win, lose draw.
I couldn’t pick one match I honestly expected any of the 4 teams to lose… the tougher matches I labelled as draws.
The results?
23 points from 33 for 3 of the teams and 25 from 33 for the other.
Don’t matter which team, the forecasts will clearly be wrong. All it said to me is that this will go down to the wire. Possibly goal difference.
Anyone else watching Hull v Brom?
Carvalho just scored a screamer. Great goal.
He was a hell of a signing for them. They play
some nice football. If they land in the play offs
I reckon they could win it.
A few things from yesterday 24 hours or so later:
For the first time I can remember, Farke's post match
comments were not in line with reality. He thought we
edged the first half. Crackers. We had a couple of
chances first half, but Leicester were on top.
We were lucky, yes. But won in the end.
Someone posted yesterday/earlier (sorry can't
remember who said it), that our squad is not
going to cut it in the Prem as is. After watching
last night, I agree. I think we all felt that. It just
became painfully obvious.
Add to that, Burnley, Luton, Sheff U all look
out of their depth this season. And Burnley tore
the Championship up last season. I keep going
back to Jonty's point a few seasons ago that
the financial gulf between established Prem
sides and Championship's top sides is widening.
Doesn't alter the fact we all want promotion.
Get that, then figure out how to stay there.
The thing is Batts as you know, being a football fan is about unforgettable moments that stay with you for a lifetime and last night was 100% one of those glorious euphoric moments supporting Leeds United and let's face we as fans are not spoilt with these types of experiences.
I certainly accept what you and many others say and point out the probable likelihood that this team in it's present state if promoted will maybe if we're lucky scrape 17th spot which if we we were all offered that now we'd accept that gleefully but as far as I'm concerned I just really appreciate moments like last night, whatever league we are in I savor it and I'll worry about next season's likely struggles in the EPL when they are upon us.
Now let's go and show the FA Cup tv audience on Wednesday what we're all about and fingers crossed another Beckford Old Trafford type moment is waiting for us to store in our memory banks... like buses!
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Page 18 of 59
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posted on 20/2/24
Masssive result at St Mary's. Not worried about Ipswich as their run-in looks pretty tough to me, with away games at Hull, Coventry, Norwich and Southampton. Three points against Leicester and I think we are truly in the driving seat. Also, to some extent, the pressure not to lose is eased a little by Southampton losing. Most importantly, it's still in our hands. MOT.
posted on 20/2/24
comment by Stoopo (U4707)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Shaun M - supercalifragilisticOrtaisatrocious (U9955)
posted 4 minutes ago
Champions mentality that is. We have to still be favourites given Saints are really inconsistent atm.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Win on Friday and we will end up winning the damn thing!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agreed, Stoopo
posted on 20/2/24
Looking at the Southampton Hull game, ain't it good Meslier wasn't in goal?..
FFS, on about mistakes, never seen that many in one game, if I was the trainer I'd sack the whole feckin lot off em!..
Both keepers were bad with their distribution, but Southamptons along with their defence at times, was a comedy off errors!..
posted on 20/2/24
comment by LufcGermany (U6066)
posted 3 minutes ago
Looking at the Southampton Hull game, ain't it good Meslier wasn't in goal?..
FFS, on about mistakes, never seen that many in one game, if I was the trainer I'd sack the whole feckin lot off em!..
Both keepers were bad with their distribution, but Southamptons along with their defence at times, was a comedy off errors!..
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agreed.
posted on 20/2/24
"Win on Friday and we will end up winning the damn thing!"
2nd is now ours to lose, but I have said before, we shouldn't be looking at 2nd, 3rd or 4th, we should be looking at first!..
Wow, we were behind 3 teams when I said that!.
posted on 20/2/24
Only just seen the results and like everyone else on here delighted that Southampton slipped up to Hull and Ipswich only won by a last gasp effort so we can't have many complaints about the footballing gods being generally kind to us so now we have to go for the jugular Friday night and really put on a show of all shows and make it nine on the trot!
posted on 20/2/24
I think others at this moment in time are more worried about us than us about them!..
Or at least should be!..
posted on 21/2/24
A win against Leicester would be such a statement win, wouldn't it?
posted on 21/2/24
Great, great result for us last night in Southampton - well done Hull! My cousins are diehard Saints fans - they're GUTTED!
As I pointed out to them, it's telling that at this point, all of the top four have scored roughly the same number of goals but whereas Ipswich and Southampton have conceded around 40 or more, us and Leicester have only conceded 26.
It's all the more impressive considering the slow start to the season we had and the need for new manager and players to find their feet.
Three points on Friday (and another clean sheet!) would be sensational - doing the double over the league leaders at this point! Ipswich and Southampton seem to have wobbled at just the right time.
Onwards and UPWARDS!
posted on 21/2/24
Right, time I think to have a more detailed look at remaining fixtures.
Have split each teams fixtures into those versus a top 12 team or a bottom 12 team, only because it’s probably the games against teams in the top half that will be the matches that are more likely to generates something other than a win for each of the top 4 sides. Not impossible, but more likely.
LEEDS
Against top 12
2 away :
- Coventry 7th
- Watford 11th
4 at home :
- Leicester 1st
- Southampton 4th
- Hull 6th
- Sunderland 10th
Against bottom 12
4 away :
- Middlesbrough 13th
- Huddersfield 20th
- QPR 22rd
- Sheff Wed 23rd
3 home :
- Blackburn 16th
- Stoke 19th
- Millwall 21st
SOUTHAMPTON
Against top 12
3 away
Leicester 1st
Leeds 2nd
Ipswich 3rd
4 home
Coventry 7th
Preston 9th
Sunderland 10th
Watford 11th
Against bottom 12
3 away :
- Cardiff 14th
- Birmingham 15th
- Blackburn 16th
3 home :
- Middlesbrough 13th
- Stoke 19th
- Millwall 21st
IPSWICH
Against top 12
3 away :
- Hull 6th
- Coventry 7th
- Norwich 8th
3 home :
- Southampton 4th
- Watford 11th
- Bristol C 12th
Against bottom 12
3 away :
Cardiff 14th
Blackburn 16th
Plymouth 17th
4 home :
Middlesbrough 13th
Birmingham 15th
Huddersfield 20th
Sheff Wed 23rd
LEICESTER
Against top 12
5 away :
- Leeds 2nd
- Hull 6th
- Preston 9th
- Sunderland 10th
- Bristol 12th
3 home :
- Southampton 4th
- West Brom 5th
- Norwich 8th
Against bottom 12
2 away :
- Plymouth 17th
- Millwall 21st
3 home :
- Birmingham 15th
- Blackburn 16th
- QPR 22nd
Took me a while to collate all this, but first feel suggests our fixtures are not the hardest of the 4 teams.
But when I’ve got a minute to have a proper look at the detail, I’m gonna go through and do a bit of my own result forecasting.
Should be interesting.
posted on 21/2/24
salonika, maybe this'll help!..
https://www.kicker.de/championship/tabellenrechner
I'd think you've more than likely got something the same in English but if not it is easy to use!..
posted on 21/2/24
Looks to me that at the moment, taking the home and away out of the equation Ipswich and ourselves have slightly easier run-ins than Southampton with Leicester the hardest but it's marginal.
One big caveat, after the international break it all changes, our fixtures become that much harder, in the world of must wins, we must win or pick up most points from the next few because after that the season looks a lot harder.
posted on 21/2/24
Ignore home v away?
Think actually that’s the critical point
Looking at points per game (PPG) as a measure of the strength of opponents …
Ipswich
Opponents they will face at home have a PPG whilst away of 1.15.
But opponents they face will face away have a home PPG of 1.61
Leicester
Home they face teams with PPG of 1.15
When away, opponents have a home PPG of 1.67
Leeds
When at home, our opponents have an average 1.41 PPG
When we play away, the home team PPG is 1.28
Southampton
At Home they face teams with away form of PPG 1.20
Away the home team PPG is 1.90
So clearly, we face much easier teams away than the other 3, but face slightly harder teams than them at home.
I think we all rather gave the harder teams to play at home rather than away.
posted on 21/2/24
I see nothing in the home or away thing, because things can work for or against it everytime!..
We're having a great run at this moment, and that runs down to the form you're in on the day, so, we only have to show the form that we have been doing now and let the luck decide how things end!..
If we find a way to turn our woodwork shots into goals than no problem!..
posted on 21/2/24
comment by salonika73 (U4688)
posted 6 hours, 59 minutes ago
Ignore home v away?
Think actually that’s the critical point
Looking at points per game (PPG) as a measure of the strength of opponents …
Ipswich
Opponents they will face at home have a PPG whilst away of 1.15.
But opponents they face will face away have a home PPG of 1.61
Leicester
Home they face teams with PPG of 1.15
When away, opponents have a home PPG of 1.67
Leeds
When at home, our opponents have an average 1.41 PPG
When we play away, the home team PPG is 1.28
Southampton
At Home they face teams with away form of PPG 1.20
Away the home team PPG is 1.90
So clearly, we face much easier teams away than the other 3, but face slightly harder teams than them at home.
I think we all rather gave the harder teams to play at home rather than away.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Our home form has been the bedrock of our season so you cannot disregard it.
I was just pointing out how after Leicester we have a couple of easy games and then there is the international break followed by Millwall, Watford, Hull, Coventry, Sunderland, Blackburn, Middlebrough, QPR and Soutthampton. Three teams in the bottom half and six in top half.
All where you draw your cut off point.
March looks easy April not so easy.
posted on 22/2/24
Agree Dennis.
But we’ve got 6 against the top 12 teams, of which 4 are at home
Ipswich got 6 also against top 12 teams, but only 3 at home
Southampton got 7, 4 at home
Leicester got 8 matches against top 12 and only 3 at home
No one is saying we have got it easy. Just think the other teams have got slightly more to worry about, which is better than the other way around
posted on 22/2/24
One game at a time, that's my motto.
All this looking ahead hurts my brain.
posted on 22/2/24
i can see us smashing the foxes 3-0
what are the odds? put a tenner on it
posted on 22/2/24
comment by kammys left foot / mbe (U21862)
posted 2 minutes ago
i can see us smashing the foxes 3-0
what are the odds? put a tenner on it
----------------
not really one for a flutter, but I do fancy us to win 3-0... just think we'll have too much for em.
posted on 22/2/24
Opta's analysis is very interesting, a couple of things jump out at me, we are now second favourites to win promotion. Under two months ago, 29th December, Ipswich were 57.7% 2nd favourites and we were 21.6%. We are now 58.8% second favourites.
As they say "it’s going to be a gut punch for at least one of those sides (Leicester, ourselves, Ipswich or Southampton) to miss out on promotion to the Premier League at the end of the campaign".
Given how quickly things can change, as illustrated above, I am reluctant to get involved in the tub-thumping that is going on regarding about cretainty of us getting promoted.
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/02/championship-table-expected-points/
posted on 22/2/24
certainty of course
posted on 22/2/24
Bored, I went through the fixtures of the 4 teams to guess win, lose draw.
I couldn’t pick one match I honestly expected any of the 4 teams to lose… the tougher matches I labelled as draws.
The results?
23 points from 33 for 3 of the teams and 25 from 33 for the other.
Don’t matter which team, the forecasts will clearly be wrong. All it said to me is that this will go down to the wire. Possibly goal difference.
posted on 24/2/24
Anyone else watching Hull v Brom?
Carvalho just scored a screamer. Great goal.
He was a hell of a signing for them. They play
some nice football. If they land in the play offs
I reckon they could win it.
posted on 24/2/24
A few things from yesterday 24 hours or so later:
For the first time I can remember, Farke's post match
comments were not in line with reality. He thought we
edged the first half. Crackers. We had a couple of
chances first half, but Leicester were on top.
We were lucky, yes. But won in the end.
Someone posted yesterday/earlier (sorry can't
remember who said it), that our squad is not
going to cut it in the Prem as is. After watching
last night, I agree. I think we all felt that. It just
became painfully obvious.
Add to that, Burnley, Luton, Sheff U all look
out of their depth this season. And Burnley tore
the Championship up last season. I keep going
back to Jonty's point a few seasons ago that
the financial gulf between established Prem
sides and Championship's top sides is widening.
Doesn't alter the fact we all want promotion.
Get that, then figure out how to stay there.
posted on 24/2/24
The thing is Batts as you know, being a football fan is about unforgettable moments that stay with you for a lifetime and last night was 100% one of those glorious euphoric moments supporting Leeds United and let's face we as fans are not spoilt with these types of experiences.
I certainly accept what you and many others say and point out the probable likelihood that this team in it's present state if promoted will maybe if we're lucky scrape 17th spot which if we we were all offered that now we'd accept that gleefully but as far as I'm concerned I just really appreciate moments like last night, whatever league we are in I savor it and I'll worry about next season's likely struggles in the EPL when they are upon us.
Now let's go and show the FA Cup tv audience on Wednesday what we're all about and fingers crossed another Beckford Old Trafford type moment is waiting for us to store in our memory banks... like buses!
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