comment by HaveFaithInLeeds (U8688)
posted 4 minutes ago

Unfairness is more commmon at the other end of the table for relegation where clubs don’t win many points. The variables have a bigger impact down there and I would say it’s not that irregular someone survives that doesn’t deserve to.

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agree the variables are bigger, again tho, similar thing.. you've 46 games and 9 months to get enough points..

it feels like millions of years Everton have 'not deserved to stay up', thing is they keep getting the points?, what more can you say?, how many seasons are these variables going to help them?

comment by HaveFaithInLeeds (U8688)
posted 2 hours, 19 minutes ago
comment by The Spanish Italians - Its all coming home again (U21595)
posted 4 minutes ago
doesn't lie I mean, sorry
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...every now and again a side will just have the vast majority of 50/50 moments go their way throughout the whole season and finish higher than they deserve.
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....and when did that ever happen to Leeds over the last 50 years ?

Being lucky or unlucky in sport is an interesting debate. No doubt teams do get lucky - Sunderland v us is a prime example. Unlucky in soccer is usually in the form of a deflection but that can be lucky as well.

However there are only one or two sports I can think of where bad luck never raises its head. Snooker being one and Darts being the other. It’s impossible to have an unlucky throw of the arrows or play an unlucky shot in snooker. If you miss then it’s because you’ve played a bad shot or thrown a poor dart.

When Wilko orchestrated our great league title triumph in 1992 pipping Man U I would say we enjoyed a fair slice of good fortune in the way Man U had a ridiculously hectic fixture pile up and so dropped points they wouldn't have normally have done which enabled us to take advantage.

On the other side of the coin Revie's great side were hampered in a similar fashion in the early 70's especially and were done no favours by the EFL so Derby and Arsenal definitely took advantage and pipped us to the 71 and 72 league Championship.

On the whole I'd say Leeds have not profited from good fortune that much but I have a feeling Sunderland will continue to enjoy Lady Luck and finish in the top 2 this season and so yes I'd agree they are this season's Ipswich.

The thing with these appraisals is that the circumstances can be infinitely varied, and what each person singles out as good or bad luck tends to be biased and cherry-picked.

I've long held the view that the outcome of a game is the balance of what two teams put into it, whereas very often we tend to look at it only from the perspective of one of the teams involved.

Take, for example, a player missing a sitter. Depending on what side we're taking, we might say that the other team got lucky, or we might say that the player who missed is just crap, or bottled it, or whatever. Exactly the same scenario, but our perception of the luck involved depends on the angle we're coming from.

If the same player had taken a shot from outside the box that rattled the bar, we might instinctively say he was unlucky - but in reality a shot from outside the box is normally a low percentage chance anyway, so it isn't really all that unlucky if it doesn't go in. Just because it came closer than most shots from the same range doesn't make it unlucky.

There are infinite similar circumstances where the good or bad luck you perceive depends on the shade of specs you're looking through.
I'm an Ipswich fan by the way.

comment by LIW 100 Points, champions, Undefeated (U8453)
posted 9 hours, 51 minutes ago
comment by The Spanish Italians - Its all coming home aga... (U21595)
posted 6 minutes ago
Whilst I do believe you finish roughly where you deserve to be, there are far too many variables in a season, to say sometimes the table does lie.

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not over 46 games and what 9 months mate I don't think..
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But it does.


Anyone who played us in first six games, had a huge advantage over anyone who played us later.

Or what about when a team plays a team ravaged with injuries, whilst a rival plays them at full strenght later.

Or someone scores a worldy against you but is dogsh8te against your rivals.

Or a ref makes a huge mistake, in a game.

You play against a team that has new manager bounce whilet rival plays same club but have lost 10 games on bounce and club is in turmoil.

Were humans, not robots, every minute of every game is slightly different.

It doesnt take much for a six points swing if these variables go for and against you.
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To be fair, I agree with this comment. At least to where the difference can be a sufficient number points to cost promotion…even if only three or four.

The notion that things even themselves out over a season is utter nonsense.

Its not logical.

If you tossed a coin five times, and it lands heads everytime, it doesnt mean its more likely to be tails the next time. Its still a 50/50 chance.

The past doesnt influence the future, in regards luck or bad decisions.1

comment by LIW 100 Points, champions, Undefeated (U8453)
posted 9 hours, 10 minutes ago

The notion that things even themselves out over a season is utter nonsense.

Its not logical.

If you tossed a coin five times, and it lands heads everytime, it doesnt mean its more likely to be tails the next time. Its still a 50/50 chance.

The past doesnt influence the future, in regards luck or bad decisions.1


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mate the more you toss that coin, 100 times, 1000 times, 200000 times, the more likely its going to even out in the end.

and thats like 46 games in football... so many changes for all teams, managers, injuries, flukey goals... the more games that are played, the more it evens out.

of course you can point to a specific time and say, they would have got more points if....

its a long season with lots of ups and downs for everyone.. some get more lucky I grant you, but in the end... like the coin toss, it evens out

Can we all flip a coin 46 times and tell us the score?

Have to say I lost my way with the conversation, Spanish isn't going to agree and I cant remember what the point was.

I'm happy to just accept that I'm right and you're wrong and move on.

What people should try doing is tossing a coin 46 times and seeing how many times it lands on heads or tails!..

I agree with LIW, things happen in life and some have worst luck than others, if it was a case of evening itself out, why don't they have as much good luck as bad!..

Bloody hell, there's a word there I didn't think would get through!.

- I can't believe as adults we're suggesting tossing a coin 46 times to see where you end up? - whats the point?, I'm sure Einstein's (or who ever) theory on probability will confirm you roughly get 23 heads... dear lord !

Germany, I've no idea what your talking about mate, 'things happen in life'

Faith, the point is actually we agree , about 99% of the time the league table doesn't lie.

46 games is a long season, not just Leeds have to play these games, every does.. we can all point to a particular thing (lets say Sunderlands equaliser) and say thats two points dropped, but then they'll games where Sunderland score and its disaollwed.

New manager bounces.. yes of course that can bag you a few more points... but usually when a manager has been newly appointed, an old manager had just be sacked, and not for winning games mate, for losing em... maybe they should have had some points there?

20 odd teams all playing 46 games each, come on, the laws of probability suggest things will even out, surely?

20 odd teams all playing 46 games each, come on, the laws of probability suggest things will even out, surely?

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Not at all

comment by LIW 100 Points, champions, Undefeated (U8453)
posted 1 minute ago


20 odd teams all playing 46 games each, come on, the laws of probability suggest things will even out, surely?

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Not at all

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I'm honesty flabbergasted that people don't think that..

I can think of Newcastle a couple of years ago where they were massivley unlucky with injuries... defo, but come on.. you can;t honestly say they deserved to finish higher? how so?, they finished on thier points total, its that simply.

and back to the point, Ipswich deserved to go up...

comment by The Spanish Italians - Its all coming home aga... (U21595)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by LIW 100 Points, champions, Undefeated (U8453)
posted 1 minute ago


20 odd teams all playing 46 games each, come on, the laws of probability suggest things will even out, surely?

———————————————————-

Not at all

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I'm honesty flabbergasted that people don't think that..

I can think of Newcastle a couple of years ago where they were massivley unlucky with injuries... defo, but come on.. you can;t honestly say they deserved to finish higher? how so?, they finished on thier points total, its that simply.

and back to the point, Ipswich deserved to go up...
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You basically missed the point completely 🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦


Its not that Newcastle were unlucky with injuries 🤦🤦🤦🤦

comment by LIW 100 Points, champions, Undefeated (U8453)
posted 1 minute ago

comment by The Spanish Italians - Its all coming home aga... (U21595)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by LIW 100 Points, champions, Undefeated (U8453)
posted 1 minute ago


20 odd teams all playing 46 games each, come on, the laws of probability suggest things will even out, surely?

———————————————————-

Not at all

-----------------------------------

I'm honesty flabbergasted that people don't think that..

I can think of Newcastle a couple of years ago where they were massivley unlucky with injuries... defo, but come on.. you can;t honestly say they deserved to finish higher? how so?, they finished on thier points total, its that simply.

and back to the point, Ipswich deserved to go up...
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You basically missed the point completely 🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦


Its not that Newcastle were unlucky with injuries 🤦🤦🤦🤦

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I thought the point was - you finish in the league where you deserve.

and the you can't point to individual things because things even out?

comment by The Spanish Italians - Its all coming home aga... (U21595)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by LIW 100 Points, champions, Undefeated (U8453)
posted 1 minute ago

comment by The Spanish Italians - Its all coming home aga... (U21595)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by LIW 100 Points, champions, Undefeated (U8453)
posted 1 minute ago


20 odd teams all playing 46 games each, come on, the laws of probability suggest things will even out, surely?

———————————————————-

Not at all

-----------------------------------

I'm honesty flabbergasted that people don't think that..

I can think of Newcastle a couple of years ago where they were massivley unlucky with injuries... defo, but come on.. you can;t honestly say they deserved to finish higher? how so?, they finished on thier points total, its that simply.

and back to the point, Ipswich deserved to go up...
----------------------------------------------------------------------

You basically missed the point completely 🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦


Its not that Newcastle were unlucky with injuries 🤦🤦🤦🤦

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I thought the point was - you finish in the league where you deserve.

and the you can't point to individual things because things even out?
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But they sometimes dont, because of the many variables.

How hard is it to understand 🤷🏻‍♂️

as I stated, I agree, 99% of the time they do... the 1% I gave is 'sometimes', but rarely..

what am I not understanding?

give me one example where you think a team has finished higher or lower than they deserved based on results?.

I gave the Newcastle example because I think tnats one of those unlucky seasons for them... they still didn;t deserve to finish higher tho.

there will be somewhere of course, but 99% of the time right?

and you brought a coin toss into it - what am saying is you can;t point to all these variables, but they have different impacts elsewhere... its a points game and if you get enough points, you deverve to, 99% of the time..

I gave the Newcastle example because I think tnats one of those unlucky seasons for them... they still didn;t deserve to finish higher tho.
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Injuries arent unlucky though are they.


The point is a team, could play them when they have a full squad, while a relegation rival plays them when, all the squad is injured.

Fairly big advantage wouldnt you see.


A team could play say Skum, say on a sunday lunch time after they have played thursday in some far flung sh@tehole, whilst rival plays them when Skum have had a weeks rest.

There are loads and loads of these instances, every season.

There are loads and loads of these instances, every season.

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exactly mate..... and they'll even out over 46 games ?!

I totally get your variable argument, its not that I'm not understanding, I'm disagreeing, (I note your tone in previous comments) - am enjoying this debate so lets keep it civil please.

so please give me an example, where you think a team has finished higher or lower than they deserve based on your vaiables?

and not deserved to finish where they did... I mean

comment by The Spanish Italians - Its all coming home aga... (U21595)
posted 16 minutes ago
There are loads and loads of these instances, every season.

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exactly mate..... and they'll even out over 46 games ?!

I totally get your variable argument, its not that I'm not understanding, I'm disagreeing, (I note your tone in previous comments) - am enjoying this debate so lets keep it civil please.

so please give me an example, where you think a team has finished higher or lower than they deserve based on your vaiables?


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Every team, has a different points total, every season because of the variables.


Not sure how hard it is too understand.


Sometimes will be in your favour and sometimes it wont be.

Nobody can complain about it, its just life, sometimes you get the breaks, sometimes you dont 👍

Sometimes will be in your favour and sometimes it wont be.

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totally agree.... it evens out?

comment by The Spanish Italians - Its all coming home aga... (U21595)
posted 36 minutes ago
Sometimes will be in your favour and sometimes it wont be.

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totally agree.... it evens out?
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No