Canada US and Mexico gave trade agreements !!!! And since an American without a credit card could die on the street , you'd analogy is nonsense !
comment by HeWhoHingAbootGetHeeHaw (U19525)
posted 3 minutes ago
We should be going it alone more often. Talking to to the Chinese and Russians.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So you would rather go and kiss the backside of China and Russia than sit at the front table of the world strongest market?
Few months ago a human right issue happened in China and our government wanted to get involved. China told them to shut up and step aside and they did. India are are now demanding UK to do certain things if they want trade cooperation.
Gib fully voted to stay as they know that they are fully safer in eu. The Spanish kicked of last year and wanted to impose certain elements on Gib. UK approached eu and the issues were resolved.
Coup get yer glasses on I said parallel union like eu. Inc free movement etc.
They'd never want it. Nor would any other continent outside eu
The world of politics is two faced the world over and I'll say it again we need reflection and reinvention of both politics and foreign policy in this country.
Your argument is nonsense when Germany kiss putins arseeee for energy.
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
no, they don't.
already the head of the federation of german industries is insisting that the eu reaches a trade agreement that does not impose any trade tariffs.
we have friendly voices in politicians from Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, etc that would raise objections to the uk being deliberately punished for leaving the eu.
trade impositions would also hurt the eu currency, and cause further unemployment in eu member nations.
the Eurozone, and the eu, already facing calls for new referendums from several member states, are facing much more uncertainty, over a much greater length of time, than the uk is, which will hurt all their economies, and their banking systems are still much more fragile than the uk's.
there is a desire to punish us for leaving, which is also partly based on making making member states more reluctant to follow us. but that'll hurt the whole eu, just as much as us. so all in all, we have the upper hand.
we're also free to negotiate new trade deals with other countries, which means we can avoid the large trade tariffs imposed on things like food and clothing imported from outside the eu, so yep, cheaper food and clothes, that sounds really bad for the economy doesn't it?
and to those of you STILL claiming we all voted out because of immigration. NO. WE DIDN'T ALL VOTE OUT BECAUSE OF THAT.
I have no problem with immigration, we need more immigration not less. but we need the immigrants to have the skills our economy requires, and to start contributing immediately, ie they'll fill in a area of major skills shortages, or already have a job offer. not someone who'll come over from eastern Europe, with no skills, no job, and try to claim every benefit going.
and for those stating we'll have less voice in the world. the eu has 2 seats on the UN security council, one of those due to the uk, the other france, the eu parliament is trying to get both the uk and france to give up those seats and hand them over to the eu.
we'll they can't have ours now. if we'd stayed in, we'd most likely have ended up losing our seat, so we'd have lost influence.
we had one voice out of 28 in eu trade negotiations, we had no voice at all at WTO trade negotiations, since the eu was the sole voice for the entire area. Norway had more influence there than us. and WTO trade deals are passed down to the eu, who then add their layer of bureaucracy and costs on top.
now we can have our own seat at the WTO (we had one before, we were forced to give it up by the eu), so more voice on world security, more voice on world trade.
so where's all this loss of influence you remainers are all clamouring about?
comment by HeWhoHingAbootGetHeeHaw (U19525)
posted 4 minutes ago
The world of politics is two faced the world over and I'll say it again we need reflection and reinvention of both politics and foreign policy in this country.
Your argument is nonsense when Germany kiss putins arseeee for energy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
UK, Germany and eu imposed financial sanctions on Russia fo meddling in Ukraine politics. How about that for kissing arseee..
" the head of the federation of german industries is insisting that the eu reaches a trade agreement that does not impose any trade tariffs. "
_________
Ah, shame. He ain't gonna get elected anytime soon, then.
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 14 minutes ago
comment by CoutinhosHappyFeet (U18971)
posted 40 minutes ago
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 14 seconds ago
"as we still have to be part of free market/movement and subscribe to eu laws/fees. "
I don't beleive this is true. Just because a country the size of a London council like Norway negotiated a schitt deal, it doesn't mean we have to.
This is a huge opportunity (and scary as)
It'll end up what we make of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We import more EU products than we export.
That's not true:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
that article says we import more from the EU than we export to it. And the imbalance has been growing in the EUs favour.
comment by 19th title coming soon. (U12879)
posted 59 seconds ago
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
no, they don't.
already the head of the federation of german industries is insisting that the eu reaches a trade agreement that does not impose any trade tariffs.
we have friendly voices in politicians from Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, etc that would raise objections to the uk being deliberately punished for leaving the eu.
trade impositions would also hurt the eu currency, and cause further unemployment in eu member nations.
the Eurozone, and the eu, already facing calls for new referendums from several member states, are facing much more uncertainty, over a much greater length of time, than the uk is, which will hurt all their economies, and their banking systems are still much more fragile than the uk's.
there is a desire to punish us for leaving, which is also partly based on making making member states more reluctant to follow us. but that'll hurt the whole eu, just as much as us. so all in all, we have the upper hand.
we're also free to negotiate new trade deals with other countries, which means we can avoid the large trade tariffs imposed on things like food and clothing imported from outside the eu, so yep, cheaper food and clothes, that sounds really bad for the economy doesn't it?
and to those of you STILL claiming we all voted out because of immigration. NO. WE DIDN'T ALL VOTE OUT BECAUSE OF THAT.
I have no problem with immigration, we need more immigration not less. but we need the immigrants to have the skills our economy requires, and to start contributing immediately, ie they'll fill in a area of major skills shortages, or already have a job offer. not someone who'll come over from eastern Europe, with no skills, no job, and try to claim every benefit going.
and for those stating we'll have less voice in the world. the eu has 2 seats on the UN security council, one of those due to the uk, the other france, the eu parliament is trying to get both the uk and france to give up those seats and hand them over to the eu.
we'll they can't have ours now. if we'd stayed in, we'd most likely have ended up losing our seat, so we'd have lost influence.
we had one voice out of 28 in eu trade negotiations, we had no voice at all at WTO trade negotiations, since the eu was the sole voice for the entire area. Norway had more influence there than us. and WTO trade deals are passed down to the eu, who then add their layer of bureaucracy and costs on top.
now we can have our own seat at the WTO (we had one before, we were forced to give it up by the eu), so more voice on world security, more voice on world trade.
so where's all this loss of influence you remainers are all clamouring about?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
This is so misinformed, I don't have an adequate response. First of all we re the ones who need to find a way to work eu 500m market, how do we have an upper hand? That's like saying we have an upper hand whilst trying to negotiate trade deal with 1bn China. Use common sense.
And no the eu do not want us to give up security council seat to eu. That's Daily Mail level bullsh,.t as eu knows it will never happen. In fact the position may now get bullied off us as we're a small national of 60 m and can't do anything without the support of others.
WTO said we're better off in eu trade deals, how is cutting off eu in favour of WTO a good thing. Use common sense ffs
which means we have the upper hand from a trade balance perspective, they have more to lose
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 26 seconds ago
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 14 minutes ago
comment by CoutinhosHappyFeet (U18971)
posted 40 minutes ago
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 14 seconds ago
"as we still have to be part of free market/movement and subscribe to eu laws/fees. "
I don't beleive this is true. Just because a country the size of a London council like Norway negotiated a schitt deal, it doesn't mean we have to.
This is a huge opportunity (and scary as)
It'll end up what we make of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We import more EU products than we export.
That's not true:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
that article says we import more from the EU than we export to it. And the imbalance has been growing in the EUs favour.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
yes, you're quite right...what i actually disagreed with in his post is the idea that because we import more from the EU than we export that somehow gives them the upper hand...whereas the opposite is true, the upper hand is with the buyer (because he can just go and buy from elsewhere) rather than with the seller.
ie much harder to find a new buyer than it is to find a new seller.
agreed
sorry, it gets confusing with all the embedded who quoted who bit
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 1 minute ago
agreed
sorry, it gets confusing with all the embedded who quoted who bit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
it for confusing because i quoted the wrong part of his post (!)
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 14 minutes ago
comment by CoutinhosHappyFeet (U18971)
posted 40 minutes ago
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 14 seconds ago
"as we still have to be part of free market/movement and subscribe to eu laws/fees. "
I don't beleive this is true. Just because a country the size of a London council like Norway negotiated a schitt deal, it doesn't mean we have to.
This is a huge opportunity (and scary as)
It'll end up what we make of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We import more EU products than we export.
That's not true:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
that article says we import more from the EU than we export to it. And the imbalance has been growing in the EUs favour.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Eu is not a single country. Any effect will be absorbed across the 27 nations just like when sanctions were imposed on Russia.
Individual countries will take actions to support those that are more likely to affected by uk exit.. ie that that trade more. What have we got that eu members can't get within the 27 states?
And, let's face it, the EU already has 64 trade agreements in place. The UK has none.
In terms of EU ex UK trade in goods, the UK is the single biggest destination for EU goods, accounting for 16% of the total:
https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/
So, whilst Britain goes it alone and negotiates trade deals with the rest of the world, the EU will sit on their hands and do nothing?
If they can't sell to you, they'll find someone else to sell to - in direct competition to you.
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 10 minutes ago
In terms of EU ex UK trade in goods, the UK is the single biggest destination for EU goods, accounting for 16% of the total:
https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Don
I stand corrected on us/them being in a position of strength re imports and exports.
However as far as I understand the EU are saying the exit and agreements made will be on their terms not ours. One of the terms I think they'll insist on is including freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
comment by Beeb (U1841)
posted 42 seconds ago
So, whilst Britain goes it alone and negotiates trade deals with the rest of the world, the EU will sit on their hands and do nothing?
If they can't sell to you, they'll find someone else to sell to - in direct competition to you.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Or the EU will carry on selling to the UK just as before. The UK takes 5 x as many European goods as Norway for instance.
Both sides are heavily reliant on each other, so there will undoubtedly be some political posturing, but the EU economy is fragile enough as it is without them torpedoing relations with their single biggest export market.
They have to. They're not going to make it look attractive to leave.
comment by Beeb (U1841)
posted 51 seconds ago
They have to. They're not going to make it look attractive to leave.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
overly punitive trade sanctions would cripple the EU economy, and simply hasten the breakup of the whole thing. EU exports to the UK make up c. 3% of EU GDP, whereas for the past 3 years EU GDP growth has barely averaged 1%.
How do you think the people of the EU would think if the EU was tipped back into recession because of a trade spat with the UK?
Like the way current Russians sanctions are causing a trade spat?
Guess what? The EU will go on.
comment by Beeb (U1841)
posted 1 minute ago
Like the way current Russians sanctions are causing a trade spat?
Guess what? The EU will go on.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yep, but the UK is a bigger trading partner with the EU by a factor of almost 3.
And as for the EU going on, I'd suggest it is a hell of a lot more fragile than you think, and it really isn't in a position to be acting too aggressively or punitively in any trade deals.
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Beeb (U1841)
posted 51 seconds ago
They have to. They're not going to make it look attractive to leave.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
overly punitive trade sanctions would cripple the EU economy, and simply hasten the breakup of the whole thing. EU exports to the UK make up c. 3% of EU GDP, whereas for the past 3 years EU GDP growth has barely averaged 1%.
How do you think the people of the EU would think if the EU was tipped back into recession because of a trade spat with the UK?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It is a far bigger risk for eu to break up compared to losing merely 3% of gdp. Individual countries will lose a lot more if the eu breaks up. That's before factoring in the likes of political stability, etc. EU have the upper hand by far and would probably use the UK to set an example to prevent other countries from taking similar action which risk eu break up and economic disaster.
One other position of strength from the EU's perspective is we want to activate this section 50 clause in 2-3 months time but they want it done now to avoid financial instability with their member countries. The city is also pressing government to get an agreement in place ASAP.
It's all on their terms I'm telling you.
Sign in if you want to comment
EU Referendum and the aftermath
Page 3 of 5
posted on 25/6/16
Canada US and Mexico gave trade agreements !!!! And since an American without a credit card could die on the street , you'd analogy is nonsense !
posted on 25/6/16
comment by HeWhoHingAbootGetHeeHaw (U19525)
posted 3 minutes ago
We should be going it alone more often. Talking to to the Chinese and Russians.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So you would rather go and kiss the backside of China and Russia than sit at the front table of the world strongest market?
Few months ago a human right issue happened in China and our government wanted to get involved. China told them to shut up and step aside and they did. India are are now demanding UK to do certain things if they want trade cooperation.
Gib fully voted to stay as they know that they are fully safer in eu. The Spanish kicked of last year and wanted to impose certain elements on Gib. UK approached eu and the issues were resolved.
posted on 25/6/16
Coup get yer glasses on I said parallel union like eu. Inc free movement etc.
They'd never want it. Nor would any other continent outside eu
posted on 25/6/16
The world of politics is two faced the world over and I'll say it again we need reflection and reinvention of both politics and foreign policy in this country.
Your argument is nonsense when Germany kiss putins arseeee for energy.
posted on 25/6/16
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
no, they don't.
already the head of the federation of german industries is insisting that the eu reaches a trade agreement that does not impose any trade tariffs.
we have friendly voices in politicians from Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, etc that would raise objections to the uk being deliberately punished for leaving the eu.
trade impositions would also hurt the eu currency, and cause further unemployment in eu member nations.
the Eurozone, and the eu, already facing calls for new referendums from several member states, are facing much more uncertainty, over a much greater length of time, than the uk is, which will hurt all their economies, and their banking systems are still much more fragile than the uk's.
there is a desire to punish us for leaving, which is also partly based on making making member states more reluctant to follow us. but that'll hurt the whole eu, just as much as us. so all in all, we have the upper hand.
we're also free to negotiate new trade deals with other countries, which means we can avoid the large trade tariffs imposed on things like food and clothing imported from outside the eu, so yep, cheaper food and clothes, that sounds really bad for the economy doesn't it?
and to those of you STILL claiming we all voted out because of immigration. NO. WE DIDN'T ALL VOTE OUT BECAUSE OF THAT.
I have no problem with immigration, we need more immigration not less. but we need the immigrants to have the skills our economy requires, and to start contributing immediately, ie they'll fill in a area of major skills shortages, or already have a job offer. not someone who'll come over from eastern Europe, with no skills, no job, and try to claim every benefit going.
and for those stating we'll have less voice in the world. the eu has 2 seats on the UN security council, one of those due to the uk, the other france, the eu parliament is trying to get both the uk and france to give up those seats and hand them over to the eu.
we'll they can't have ours now. if we'd stayed in, we'd most likely have ended up losing our seat, so we'd have lost influence.
we had one voice out of 28 in eu trade negotiations, we had no voice at all at WTO trade negotiations, since the eu was the sole voice for the entire area. Norway had more influence there than us. and WTO trade deals are passed down to the eu, who then add their layer of bureaucracy and costs on top.
now we can have our own seat at the WTO (we had one before, we were forced to give it up by the eu), so more voice on world security, more voice on world trade.
so where's all this loss of influence you remainers are all clamouring about?
posted on 25/6/16
comment by HeWhoHingAbootGetHeeHaw (U19525)
posted 4 minutes ago
The world of politics is two faced the world over and I'll say it again we need reflection and reinvention of both politics and foreign policy in this country.
Your argument is nonsense when Germany kiss putins arseeee for energy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
UK, Germany and eu imposed financial sanctions on Russia fo meddling in Ukraine politics. How about that for kissing arseee..
posted on 25/6/16
" the head of the federation of german industries is insisting that the eu reaches a trade agreement that does not impose any trade tariffs. "
_________
Ah, shame. He ain't gonna get elected anytime soon, then.
posted on 25/6/16
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 14 minutes ago
comment by CoutinhosHappyFeet (U18971)
posted 40 minutes ago
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 14 seconds ago
"as we still have to be part of free market/movement and subscribe to eu laws/fees. "
I don't beleive this is true. Just because a country the size of a London council like Norway negotiated a schitt deal, it doesn't mean we have to.
This is a huge opportunity (and scary as)
It'll end up what we make of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We import more EU products than we export.
That's not true:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
that article says we import more from the EU than we export to it. And the imbalance has been growing in the EUs favour.
posted on 25/6/16
comment by 19th title coming soon. (U12879)
posted 59 seconds ago
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
no, they don't.
already the head of the federation of german industries is insisting that the eu reaches a trade agreement that does not impose any trade tariffs.
we have friendly voices in politicians from Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, etc that would raise objections to the uk being deliberately punished for leaving the eu.
trade impositions would also hurt the eu currency, and cause further unemployment in eu member nations.
the Eurozone, and the eu, already facing calls for new referendums from several member states, are facing much more uncertainty, over a much greater length of time, than the uk is, which will hurt all their economies, and their banking systems are still much more fragile than the uk's.
there is a desire to punish us for leaving, which is also partly based on making making member states more reluctant to follow us. but that'll hurt the whole eu, just as much as us. so all in all, we have the upper hand.
we're also free to negotiate new trade deals with other countries, which means we can avoid the large trade tariffs imposed on things like food and clothing imported from outside the eu, so yep, cheaper food and clothes, that sounds really bad for the economy doesn't it?
and to those of you STILL claiming we all voted out because of immigration. NO. WE DIDN'T ALL VOTE OUT BECAUSE OF THAT.
I have no problem with immigration, we need more immigration not less. but we need the immigrants to have the skills our economy requires, and to start contributing immediately, ie they'll fill in a area of major skills shortages, or already have a job offer. not someone who'll come over from eastern Europe, with no skills, no job, and try to claim every benefit going.
and for those stating we'll have less voice in the world. the eu has 2 seats on the UN security council, one of those due to the uk, the other france, the eu parliament is trying to get both the uk and france to give up those seats and hand them over to the eu.
we'll they can't have ours now. if we'd stayed in, we'd most likely have ended up losing our seat, so we'd have lost influence.
we had one voice out of 28 in eu trade negotiations, we had no voice at all at WTO trade negotiations, since the eu was the sole voice for the entire area. Norway had more influence there than us. and WTO trade deals are passed down to the eu, who then add their layer of bureaucracy and costs on top.
now we can have our own seat at the WTO (we had one before, we were forced to give it up by the eu), so more voice on world security, more voice on world trade.
so where's all this loss of influence you remainers are all clamouring about?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
This is so misinformed, I don't have an adequate response. First of all we re the ones who need to find a way to work eu 500m market, how do we have an upper hand? That's like saying we have an upper hand whilst trying to negotiate trade deal with 1bn China. Use common sense.
And no the eu do not want us to give up security council seat to eu. That's Daily Mail level bullsh,.t as eu knows it will never happen. In fact the position may now get bullied off us as we're a small national of 60 m and can't do anything without the support of others.
WTO said we're better off in eu trade deals, how is cutting off eu in favour of WTO a good thing. Use common sense ffs
posted on 25/6/16
which means we have the upper hand from a trade balance perspective, they have more to lose
posted on 25/6/16
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 26 seconds ago
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 14 minutes ago
comment by CoutinhosHappyFeet (U18971)
posted 40 minutes ago
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 14 seconds ago
"as we still have to be part of free market/movement and subscribe to eu laws/fees. "
I don't beleive this is true. Just because a country the size of a London council like Norway negotiated a schitt deal, it doesn't mean we have to.
This is a huge opportunity (and scary as)
It'll end up what we make of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We import more EU products than we export.
That's not true:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
that article says we import more from the EU than we export to it. And the imbalance has been growing in the EUs favour.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
yes, you're quite right...what i actually disagreed with in his post is the idea that because we import more from the EU than we export that somehow gives them the upper hand...whereas the opposite is true, the upper hand is with the buyer (because he can just go and buy from elsewhere) rather than with the seller.
ie much harder to find a new buyer than it is to find a new seller.
posted on 25/6/16
agreed
sorry, it gets confusing with all the embedded who quoted who bit
posted on 25/6/16
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 1 minute ago
agreed
sorry, it gets confusing with all the embedded who quoted who bit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
it for confusing because i quoted the wrong part of his post (!)
posted on 25/6/16
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 14 minutes ago
comment by CoutinhosHappyFeet (U18971)
posted 40 minutes ago
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 14 seconds ago
"as we still have to be part of free market/movement and subscribe to eu laws/fees. "
I don't beleive this is true. Just because a country the size of a London council like Norway negotiated a schitt deal, it doesn't mean we have to.
This is a huge opportunity (and scary as)
It'll end up what we make of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As it stands the EU have got the upper hand in negotiations. We import more EU products than we export. They've also stated there will be no special treatment in the 'divorce settlement'.
Of course they're going to insist on freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We import more EU products than we export.
That's not true:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit
----------------------------------------------------------------------
that article says we import more from the EU than we export to it. And the imbalance has been growing in the EUs favour.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Eu is not a single country. Any effect will be absorbed across the 27 nations just like when sanctions were imposed on Russia.
Individual countries will take actions to support those that are more likely to affected by uk exit.. ie that that trade more. What have we got that eu members can't get within the 27 states?
posted on 25/6/16
And, let's face it, the EU already has 64 trade agreements in place. The UK has none.
posted on 25/6/16
In terms of EU ex UK trade in goods, the UK is the single biggest destination for EU goods, accounting for 16% of the total:
https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/
posted on 25/6/16
So, whilst Britain goes it alone and negotiates trade deals with the rest of the world, the EU will sit on their hands and do nothing?
If they can't sell to you, they'll find someone else to sell to - in direct competition to you.
posted on 25/6/16
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 10 minutes ago
In terms of EU ex UK trade in goods, the UK is the single biggest destination for EU goods, accounting for 16% of the total:
https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Don
I stand corrected on us/them being in a position of strength re imports and exports.
However as far as I understand the EU are saying the exit and agreements made will be on their terms not ours. One of the terms I think they'll insist on is including freedom of movement in exchange for trade agreements.
posted on 25/6/16
comment by Beeb (U1841)
posted 42 seconds ago
So, whilst Britain goes it alone and negotiates trade deals with the rest of the world, the EU will sit on their hands and do nothing?
If they can't sell to you, they'll find someone else to sell to - in direct competition to you.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Or the EU will carry on selling to the UK just as before. The UK takes 5 x as many European goods as Norway for instance.
Both sides are heavily reliant on each other, so there will undoubtedly be some political posturing, but the EU economy is fragile enough as it is without them torpedoing relations with their single biggest export market.
posted on 25/6/16
They have to. They're not going to make it look attractive to leave.
posted on 25/6/16
comment by Beeb (U1841)
posted 51 seconds ago
They have to. They're not going to make it look attractive to leave.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
overly punitive trade sanctions would cripple the EU economy, and simply hasten the breakup of the whole thing. EU exports to the UK make up c. 3% of EU GDP, whereas for the past 3 years EU GDP growth has barely averaged 1%.
How do you think the people of the EU would think if the EU was tipped back into recession because of a trade spat with the UK?
posted on 25/6/16
Like the way current Russians sanctions are causing a trade spat?
Guess what? The EU will go on.
posted on 25/6/16
comment by Beeb (U1841)
posted 1 minute ago
Like the way current Russians sanctions are causing a trade spat?
Guess what? The EU will go on.
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Yep, but the UK is a bigger trading partner with the EU by a factor of almost 3.
And as for the EU going on, I'd suggest it is a hell of a lot more fragile than you think, and it really isn't in a position to be acting too aggressively or punitively in any trade deals.
posted on 25/6/16
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Beeb (U1841)
posted 51 seconds ago
They have to. They're not going to make it look attractive to leave.
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overly punitive trade sanctions would cripple the EU economy, and simply hasten the breakup of the whole thing. EU exports to the UK make up c. 3% of EU GDP, whereas for the past 3 years EU GDP growth has barely averaged 1%.
How do you think the people of the EU would think if the EU was tipped back into recession because of a trade spat with the UK?
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It is a far bigger risk for eu to break up compared to losing merely 3% of gdp. Individual countries will lose a lot more if the eu breaks up. That's before factoring in the likes of political stability, etc. EU have the upper hand by far and would probably use the UK to set an example to prevent other countries from taking similar action which risk eu break up and economic disaster.
posted on 25/6/16
One other position of strength from the EU's perspective is we want to activate this section 50 clause in 2-3 months time but they want it done now to avoid financial instability with their member countries. The city is also pressing government to get an agreement in place ASAP.
It's all on their terms I'm telling you.
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