Bit of relief for @RachelReevesMP this morning:
Pound a little bit stronger.
Gilt yields not spiking. But nor are they falling. 10yr still close to the 4.5% level it hit yday.
Real question is what happens later today amid a flurry of US econ data.
Still nervy out there...

https://x.com/edconwaysky/status/1852266513555738962?s=46&t=bPTrpdgNggCdz9igvhmVyw

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (+1)
CON: 24% (=)
RFM: 18% (-1)
LDM: 14% (+1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via @techneUK, 30-31 Oct.
Changes w/ 23-24 Oct.

BUDGET BOUNCE

A lot of "project fear" out there from the right wing

We'll be having a lot of that over the next 5 years.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/28/taliban-bans-women-from-hearing-each-others-voices/

Fooking archaic dark ages morons. A bunch of bitter old men terrified of women and girls potential

That’s just facking mental.

Nate Silver, in an interview with CNBC. “Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount,” he said.

Oscar, Oscar are...are you there?

Bookies seem pretty sure Trump will win. Favorite to win every swing state apart from Michigan

Musk has been manipulating the betting side so idiots will think Trump will win

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-massive-pro-donald-trump-wagers-are-tilting-polymarket-the-site-elon-musk-touts-as-proof-hell-win/

Hopefully that works against the oligarch class who clearly want take over

https://www.rte.ie/news/regional/2024/1101/1478578-hoax-parade-dublin/

This is funny

comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 51 minutes ago
Nate Silver, in an interview with CNBC. “Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount,” he said.

Oscar, Oscar are...are you there?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s very funny because a month ago he was predicting an 80% chance of Trump winning then went back on his daft prediction

NEW swing states poll by Marist (A+)

Michigan: Harris 51%. Trump 48%
Pensilvanya: Harris 50%. Trump 48%
Wisconsin: Harris 50%. Trump 48%

EXCLUSIVE

Tories take a polling lead - for the first time in 3 years (on Sunak's last day as leader)

Con 29%
Lab 28%
Ref 17%
LD 13%
Grn 8%

Voters think Budget will leave them worse off, @BMGResearch poll finds

Story @theipaper

comment by Bats Uncensored (U18355)
posted 2 hours, 51 minutes ago
Bookies seem pretty sure Trump will win. Favorite to win every swing state apart from Michigan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If Harris wins they're gonna make a killing. Also, this could lead to poorer voter turnout as many lukewarm MAGA loons will think it's in the bag and stay at home like they did in 2020.

Scary bit is expectation levels, IF Harris wins, what will the American Oscars do with the emotional disappointment? Partisan pollster and, as has been pointed out, the bookies, are tipping a Trump victory, if it's close nd he.loses they're gonna lose their minds

NEW: Over 100 BBC employees have signed a letter accusing the corporation of having a "pro-Israel" bias

[@Telegraph]

Understatement of the century

EXCLUSIVE: Kamala Harris is on track to become America’s first female president by a narrow margin, according to the final Times poll before the US election

Arizona - Trump +1
Georgia - Trump +2
North Carolina - Trump +1
Nevada - Harris +1
Pennsylvania - Harris +2
Michigan - Harris +2
Wisconsin - Harris +3

https://x.com/gailendavid/status/1852304652018102540?s=46

Elon Musks mum is as weird as he is

comment by Jake Moon (U11781)
posted 1 hour, 57 minutes ago
NEW: Over 100 BBC employees have signed a letter accusing the corporation of having a "pro-Israel" bias

[@Telegraph]

Understatement of the century
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think it’s as narrow as a pro-Israel bias.

The BBC’s output is culturally restrained. As with the Overton Window, there are (shifting with time) cultural as well as political constraints which define the limits of what might deemed acceptable discourse for the BBC (or any given public broadcaster) on any given subject.

The BBC can freely report that the RSF is committing indiscriminate “ethnic killings” in Darfur (and it is) without fear of social or political fallout. The UK minister for Africa has also said that the RSF is committing ethnic cleansing in Sudan (and it is), and the BBC’s reporting falls within the bounds of what we have collectively determined (what we have been led to determine) is culturally acceptable discourse.

The BBC cannot report objectively on Israel’s atrocities, nor can it on China’s activities in the South China Sea, nor can it on the conflict between Russia and NATO in Ukraine, because *culturally*, whether we like it or not, we have skin in those games. BBC journalists born, raised and trained in the UK carry inherent biases, as do their editors, and they operate in a cultural (even before political) environment which will tolerate only so much consideration of non-Western-centric, non-neoliberal, non-Nato perspectives.

I have not begun to explain this well, probably because I have drunk a lot of caramel vodka, but, as always, read Chomsky.

Trump and his team are manipulating polls to make the election fraud claims when he loses seem more realistic.

This budget was and is and will continue to be an absolute fwck up of epic proprtions only outdone by the Truss disaster.

Nothing even comes close to it.

“We will see”? Utter baws. It’s already happening, so strap in and tighten your seatbelts because those on the lower end of the pay scales will yet again suffer far more than those at the top end. A few exceptions excluded which were never intended.

The mythical “working man” will bear the full front of it. Don’t even wait to see. It’s already underway.

comment by Playmaker (U22780)
posted 13 hours, 9 minutes ago
A lot of "project fear" out there from the right wing

We'll be having a lot of that over the next 5 years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

You’ll be having a lot of reality

Good luck with that

comment by It’s time for some Lancashire hotPote, R... (U17054)
posted 1 day, 1 hour ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 1 hour, 55 minutes ago
Meant to say that the IMF are the complete outliers here.

Just look at the way the markets are responding and how currency is faring.

It’s all there for anyone to get to grips with. Maybe they’re all wrong I suppose
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Let’s come back to this in a fortnight or a month to see where the markets and Sterling are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Let’s not.

Let’s just see what’s already happening and is believed to get worse.

That’s the reality we all now face and the lie that exists is that those at the lower end of the pay scale will end up worse off through their life when everyone was told that the “working man” wouldn’t see a change in their pay packets.

This first term will have the people know they were lied to. Only 4 more years to go and that’s 4 too many. They are finished alrewsfy

oops

Finished already. Their final nail in their coffin will be the announcement of more tax rises and impending strike actions as the unions all weigh in.

Let’s come back to that in the summer/autumn.

"The BBC cannot report objectively on Israel’s atrocities, nor can it on China’s activities in the South China Sea, nor can it on the conflict between Russia and NATO in Ukraine, because *culturally*, whether we like it or not, we have skin in those games. BBC journalists born, raised and trained in the UK carry inherent biases, as do their editors, and they operate in a cultural (even before political) environment which will tolerate only so much consideration of non-Western-centric, non-neoliberal, non-Nato perspectives."




Some people are real good at explaining stuff.

comment by Playmaker (U22780)
posted 18 hours, 6 minutes ago
A lot of "project fear" out there from the right wing

We'll be having a lot of that over the next 5 years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah, hopefully socialist worker will stop going on about this.