They're talking about the decade ending in 2020

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Giant steps are OK for astronauts but not so good for space cadets
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"...one more thing - if anybody's listening, that is. Nothing scientific. It's purely personal. But seen from out here [in Outer Space] everything seems different. Time bends.
Space is boundless. It squashes a man's ego. I feel lonely. That's about it. Tell me, though. Does man, that marvel of the universe, that glorious paradox who sent me to the stars, still make war against his brother? Keep his neighbour's children starving?"

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Hopefully the whole thing just keeps growing into a bigger and bigger problem until they just have to do something other than Brexit to avoid meltdown.

I notice the EU leaders are once again stating that there will be no access to the single market without freedom of movement (the whole reason most people voted against it)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38100561

Johnny foreigner clearly doesn't understand this is Britain he's dealing with... we'll waltz in there tell fritz and the hu. ns how it going to be and they'll agree to our demands...

Even if they don't we used to have a massive empire, all these other countries we've been actively refusing to trade with because of the EU will be lining up to buy British and we'll be richer than ever

I don’t think there’s much jubilation from the EU either to be fair.

They realise that Brexit will be detrimental for European markets too. Although to put it into context, the UK’s trade with the EU represents less than 2% of the blocs’ total commerce. While UK imports/exports to the EU contribute (based on 2015 figures) to around 56% of UK GDP.

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comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 3 minutes ago
What is the trade with individual countries in the EU and the UK?
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http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-trade-with-the-eu-and-beyond

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The problem I see is whilst the leavers are right in that a good deal will be very important to Germany there are a load of other countries some of which do very little trade with us.

Some of these countries are going to see freedom of movement as very important.

So how are we going to force through a deal to retain access without freedom of movement?

Despite the cries of undemocratic and other rubbish, Germany or unelected bureaucrats couldn't push through the deal against the wishes of the individual counties...

Unless we can somehow bribe all the countries in the EU its just not going to work...

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Germany has a strong influence but CETA was nearly killed because of one regional parliament (or law making type house) within Belguim, why the hell would all the various parties who need to agree (not veto) do so just because of German pressure....

Especially after a fair few of them have come out and expressly said there will be no access without freedom of movement.

There is only so much influence Germany can exert...

That is also assuming that they really want to give the UK a deal without freedom of movement, that may well be something they'd be unhappy with let alone all the other countries involved.

Yes way Jose

FOM is one of the core, and founding/embedded principles of the EU.

The UK asking them to abandon this ideology (to facilitate a ‘good deal’ ) is like asking the US to replace the stars and stripes with the hammer and sickle.


Cal Neva

The UK will not be negotiating with one particular country.

The UK will negotiate with the EU Commission which represents the entire bloc.

For example Germany may want a particular outcome with the UK. But could only do so with universal agreement with the 26 other counties, and subsequent ratification via the EU Parliament.

comment by Yes way Jose (U5768)
posted 3 minutes ago
Germany has a strong influence but CETA was nearly killed because of one regional parliament (or law making type house) within Belguim, why the hell would all the various parties who need to agree (not veto) do so just because of German pressure....

Especially after a fair few of them have come out and expressly said there will be no access without freedom of movement.

There is only so much influence Germany can exert...

That is also assuming that they really want to give the UK a deal without freedom of movement, that may well be something they'd be unhappy with let alone all the other countries involved.
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The Wallonians!

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Cal Neva

Personally I cannot see how the Gov will be able to negotiate FOM. I believe it will be conceded.

If they (as the ‘hard Brexiteers’ want) do, it will cripple the economy.

80% of GDP is derived from services. Financial Services contributing most of that. If the UK does not get full access to the SM, banks lose passporting. Which is why every time the Gov suggests leaving the SM, the pound takes a hammering. Luxemburg, Madrid, Dublin etc have been trying to lure UK financial services. To be fair, they’ve been striving to do this for years – irrespective of Brexit. Although we’ve now made it much much easier for them.

I understand many UK based lenders had already acquired property across Europe (before the result) and are waiting to see what the Gov decides before moving. Some have already left.

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Cal Neva

Yes, and the conclusion was the same.

Imagine you are a US insurance company. Do you lose your entire European commercial operation, and also risk losing exiting provisions, by remaining outside of the SM. Or move a few hundred miles from Canary Warf to Europe? Where you have been offered tax reductions and a mix of finanical enticements to do so.

There is no “other way” around it. A lender that does not have a passport cannot operate freely in the EU. They would need to apply for individual authorisation from 27 countries. The costs of which would be substantial.

Unless you think lenders would want to remain in the UK, operate at a loss, out of loyalty to the UK?

There is no "unique talent" that can circumvent passporting regulations.

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From that article :

“The direct impact is likely to be modest,” the credit analysts said today. “The greater impact would be felt through higher costs and diversion of management attention, as the companies concerned restructure, reducing profitability for a time."