Pretty sure peks thought it’d take a few months for Russia to take all of Ukraine.

don't think that was ever the objective tbh

comment by peks - Supreme Commander (U6618)
posted 1 minute ago
don't think that was ever the objective tbh
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, let’s pretend the objective wasn’t to take Kyiv at the beginning.

comment by peks - Supreme Commander (U6618)
posted 3 minutes ago
don't think that was ever the objective tbh
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Leeds’ objective wasn’t to stay in the Premier League this past season.

comment by peks - Supreme Commander (U6618)
posted 1 hour, 7 minutes ago
don't think that was ever the objective tbh
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Which bits do you think they wanted? One of the people on that forum made a passing, perhaps unconscious reference to the bits that were 'needed'.

Is this all then just a grab to control strategically important land and resources?

comment by it'sonlyagame (U6426)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by peks - Supreme Commander (U6618)
posted 1 hour, 7 minutes ago
don't think that was ever the objective tbh
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Which bits do you think they wanted? One of the people on that forum made a passing, perhaps unconscious reference to the bits that were 'needed'.

Is this all then just a grab to control strategically important land and resources?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
crimea and donbass...

kiev and the centre a neutral or certainly not NATO ukranian state

west Ukraine such as Lyiv, Poland can have that

think that's what the game plan was tbh

comment by it'sonlyagame (U6426)
posted 50 minutes ago
comment by peks - Supreme Commander (U6618)
posted 1 hour, 7 minutes ago
don't think that was ever the objective tbh
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Which bits do you think they wanted? One of the people on that forum made a passing, perhaps unconscious reference to the bits that were 'needed'.

Is this all then just a grab to control strategically important land and resources?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Land and resource grab, secure a southern port with access to the south Atlantic, keep Ukraine from joining both NATO and the EU (both of which have only become more likely now), attempt to destroy Ukrainian democracy, and undermine its standard of living and path to liberalisation.

Putin really can’t have Russians who see the Ukrainians as their brothers and sisters staring over the border at an ever more affluent, free, democratic and liberal Ukraine whilst they’re stuck living in a failing pariah state governed by an anachronistic nationalist dictator.

But yeah, something something de-nazification something.

Putin’s time will be up soon enough, and at that point, or some time thereafter, the Russian people will decide they’ve had enough of kleptocratic autocracy and we’ll see their long overdue version of Euromaidan.

I dunno about that, Russians have always had a strong affinity for ‘strongmen’. Wouldn’t be a surprise it someone more radical than Putin ends up consolidating power.

comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 4 minutes ago

Putin’s time will be up soon enough, and at that point, or some time thereafter, the Russian people will decide they’ve had enough of kleptocratic autocracy and we’ll see their long overdue version of Euromaidan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you're right, but Putin has done such a job of monopolising the public discourse, ostracising or eliminating opposing politicians and journalists, and putting the wealth into the hands of similarly-minded kleptocrats, that I can't see how the people could seize power non-violently - even if there was a genuine appetite for it.

There’s a pretty good argument that history will look back at Putin as one of the very worst leaders in Russian history.

All of the opportunities the country had after the fall of the wall - the unique geography and rich resources of the place, the wide strategic regional and global geopolitical influence, the wealth, the workforce, the liberalisation and enfranchisement the Soviet regime had already seeded… - and what has he done?

He’s facked the constitution up, he’s taken complete control of the media, he’s restricted internet access, hes shut down cultural growth and opportunities, he’s completely facked international Russian business interests, he’s tanked the economy, he’s massively curbed personal freedoms, he’s sent hundreds of thousands of young men to torment and their deaths fighting an illegal war which will make the country a pariah state for years if not decades to come, he’s made life difficult for emigrants outside Russia everywhere, he’s triggered a brain drain of productive working aged men and women all queuing at the borders to escape the country, he’s made 95% of Russians much poorer than they were…

Disastrous for global peace, disastrous for Russian families, disastrous for Russia plc, disastrous for Russia as a global power.

comment by it'sonlyagame (U6426)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 4 minutes ago

Putin’s time will be up soon enough, and at that point, or some time thereafter, the Russian people will decide they’ve had enough of kleptocratic autocracy and we’ll see their long overdue version of Euromaidan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you're right, but Putin has done such a job of monopolising the public discourse, ostracising or eliminating opposing politicians and journalists, and putting the wealth into the hands of similarly-minded kleptocrats, that I can't see how the people could seize power non-violently - even if there was a genuine appetite for it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It’s either that or Russia becomes an impoverished and largely irrelevant landmass entirely subservient to Indian and/or Chinese interests.

I’d like to give the Russian people some credit. I think they’ll decide they’ve have enough eventually.

comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by it'sonlyagame (U6426)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 4 minutes ago

Putin’s time will be up soon enough, and at that point, or some time thereafter, the Russian people will decide they’ve had enough of kleptocratic autocracy and we’ll see their long overdue version of Euromaidan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you're right, but Putin has done such a job of monopolising the public discourse, ostracising or eliminating opposing politicians and journalists, and putting the wealth into the hands of similarly-minded kleptocrats, that I can't see how the people could seize power non-violently - even if there was a genuine appetite for it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It’s either that or Russia becomes an impoverished and largely irrelevant landmass entirely subservient to Indian and/or Chinese interests.

I’d like to give the Russian people some credit. I think they’ll decide they’ve have enough eventually.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I would put a sizeable amount of money on large swathes of eastern Russia being under Chinese control in the second half of this century

comment by Kobbie The King Mainoo (U10026)
posted 12 minutes ago
I dunno about that, Russians have always had a strong affinity for ‘strongmen’. Wouldn’t be a surprise it someone more radical than Putin ends up consolidating power.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Arguably, but I wouldn’t consider Gorbachev or Yeltsin to be archetypal strongmen (not in anything close to the Putin mould, anyway), popular as they were; and in fact I’d argue that historically, there’s at least as much evidence to suggest that the Russian people have actually bought more into political and sociopolitical ideas and ideologies.

Given actual liberal democracies have seen a rowing back on democratic rights all across the world, I find it hard to see Russia going the other way.

comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Kobbie The King Mainoo (U10026)
posted 12 minutes ago
I dunno about that, Russians have always had a strong affinity for ‘strongmen’. Wouldn’t be a surprise it someone more radical than Putin ends up consolidating power.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Arguably, but I wouldn’t consider Gorbachev or Yeltsin to be archetypal strongmen (not in anything close to the Putin mould, anyway), popular as they were; and in fact I’d argue that historically, there’s at least as much evidence to suggest that the Russian people have actually bought more into political and sociopolitical ideas and ideologies.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Didn’t work out too well for them, did it?

comment by Robb Cummins-Lyon (U22716)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by it'sonlyagame (U6426)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 4 minutes ago

Putin’s time will be up soon enough, and at that point, or some time thereafter, the Russian people will decide they’ve had enough of kleptocratic autocracy and we’ll see their long overdue version of Euromaidan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you're right, but Putin has done such a job of monopolising the public discourse, ostracising or eliminating opposing politicians and journalists, and putting the wealth into the hands of similarly-minded kleptocrats, that I can't see how the people could seize power non-violently - even if there was a genuine appetite for it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It’s either that or Russia becomes an impoverished and largely irrelevant landmass entirely subservient to Indian and/or Chinese interests.

I’d like to give the Russian people some credit. I think they’ll decide they’ve have enough eventually.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I would put a sizeable amount of money on large swathes of eastern Russia being under Chinese control in the second half of this century
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah apparently Xi wants to take back lots of lands from Russia that had historically belonged to China.

why do you think Western European style "democracy" is what is wanted by Russians ?

They've had a taste of that in the early 90s under Yelstin and it was extremely harmful to most Russians "
This is what the "West£ tries to do everywhere, impose it's ideals and political system on others....Iraq, Libya....did it work well there ?

comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 30 minutes ago
comment by it'sonlyagame (U6426)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 4 minutes ago

Putin’s time will be up soon enough, and at that point, or some time thereafter, the Russian people will decide they’ve had enough of kleptocratic autocracy and we’ll see their long overdue version of Euromaidan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you're right, but Putin has done such a job of monopolising the public discourse, ostracising or eliminating opposing politicians and journalists, and putting the wealth into the hands of similarly-minded kleptocrats, that I can't see how the people could seize power non-violently - even if there was a genuine appetite for it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It’s either that or Russia becomes an impoverished and largely irrelevant landmass entirely subservient to Indian and/or Chinese interests.

I’d like to give the Russian people some credit. I think they’ll decide they’ve have enough eventually.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Russia is the most resource rich country on earth
it's never going to become an improvised backwater

Given the Russians have mined the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and fallout would impact Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

Would there and should there be a NATO response if they blow it?

I think it's imperative there is an overwhelming full conventional response by NATO in this circumstance but interested to hear sensible opinions and Pekski

comment by Kobbie The King Mainoo (U10026)
posted 45 minutes ago
comment by rosso says the time has come to unlock the unlimited Pote-ntial of the Fernançalvemiro triumvirate (U17054)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Kobbie The King Mainoo (U10026)
posted 12 minutes ago
I dunno about that, Russians have always had a strong affinity for ‘strongmen’. Wouldn’t be a surprise it someone more radical than Putin ends up consolidating power.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Arguably, but I wouldn’t consider Gorbachev or Yeltsin to be archetypal strongmen (not in anything close to the Putin mould, anyway), popular as they were; and in fact I’d argue that historically, there’s at least as much evidence to suggest that the Russian people have actually bought more into political and sociopolitical ideas and ideologies.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Didn’t work out too well for them, did it?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Gorbachev had six or seven years, carried the country through its most significant political and social reforms for close to a half century and, despite being removed by political rivals, remained active and influential in the political establishment pretty much until his death.

Yeltsin was then elected first president of the Russian Federation (if that’s what it was already termed at that point, I forget), and served the best part of a decade. Eight years, was it?

Yes, Yeltsin did a lot of damage, but in terms of their own personal political influence/ambitions, neither really did particularly badly.

Unfortunately, they’ve both just been followed by an exceptionally callous, ruthless, single-minded and self-serving psychopath who has unpicked just about everything anyone could say was positive about Russian politics and society.

The Russians also haven’t had the opportunity to choose Putin since his first re-election. Since then they’ve had him whether they’ve liked it or not.

But therein lies the problem, they weren’t really able to establish any stability with their political ideals. History looks more fondly on Gorbachev from a Western perspective, but I’m not sure that’s quite the case in Russia. You’ve then got the issues that ioag raised, and I find it fanciful to suggest Russians will force the issue to make the country more democratic.

Russia

GDP per capita 2013: US$15,975
GDP per capita 2021: US$12,195 (lower than Bulgaria and Romania)

China

GDP per capita 2013: US$7,020
GDP per capita 2021: US$12,556

US

GDP per capita 2013: US$53,291
GDP per capita 2021: US$70,249

EU

GDP per capita 2013: US$34,564
GDP per capita 2021: US$38,411

Russia was going the wrong way, at a rate, before the war and before the sanctions.

It is now poorer than every single EU country, China, South-East Asia and half of Latin America. The likes of Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, Indonesia and India will pass it within a generation, and in some of those cases, much sooner.

The path it is on is one to ruin.

comment by Kobbie The King Mainoo (U10026)
posted 12 minutes ago
But therein lies the problem, they weren’t really able to establish any stability with their political ideals. History looks more fondly on Gorbachev from a Western perspective, but I’m not sure that’s quite the case in Russia. You’ve then got the issues that ioag raised, and I find it fanciful to suggest Russians will force the issue to make the country more democratic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Time will tell.

But I think we should also recognise that Putin didn’t come to power making pledges to unpick Russian democracy, follow a isolationist/nationalist path or strengthen the role of the presidency.

He was hand-picked by Yeltsin to be his successor, then effectively fell into the role as acting pres when Yeltsin resigned. By the time his first presidential election came around, Putin had allied with the most popular party in the Duma, and had little competition.

One of the first things he did as pres was ‘tackle the oligarchy’ (lol) Yeltsin had allowed to form and establish.

Just to add to those figures above, Trading Economics has Russia’s GDP per capita falling to US$10,063 by end 2023.

That’s a contraction of just under 40% across a decade, which will put it in line with the likes of Mexico, Turkey and Brazil, and with, I think we can safely expect, the global demand for renewable energy continuing to skyrocket and sanctions still hurting Russian business interests.