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The Brexit Thread

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posted on 4/6/16

Ive been following this brexit story with a keen eye over the last few months and have come to this conclusion:

If we vote to remain:

Nothing will change


If we vote to leave:

We'll all be jobless, the country will be in the grip of a recession/depression within hours of voting, isis terrorists will decide to focus it's operations at the UK and we'll be fecked cos no intelligence will be passed between our neighbours and ourselves, the supermarkets will be empty because no countries will trade their goods with us till we set up trade deals which will take decades, all foreign companies based he will up sticks and leave, forever, oh and the sky will fall in.

posted on 4/6/16

Also, it doesn't take into account the inputs our manufacturing industries take in from Europe for final assembly in the Uk - these will end up costing more as the cost of inputs would be higher (£v&euro


why are you assuming that the pound is going to nosedive if we vote out? yes, it's possible, it certainly isn't a given though.
why are you assuming that anything coming in from Europe is going to be more expensive if we vote out?

IF we vote to leave. the chances of the Eurozone breaking apart will be greatly increased. this will exert downward pressure on the value of the euro, so even if the value of sterling drops, it's likely to be matched by a corresponding drop in the euro.
there is nothing, anywhere, that guarantees that voting out will make anything from Europe more expensive.
as for trade tariffs, the only reason for the eu to impose those is to make it look unpalatable to other countries to consider leaving. considering the current weakness of the financial markets, the lack of growth in the Eurozone. etc, along with our freedom to negotiate our own trade agreements, with countries the eu is currently in stalled negotiations with.
financially, trade tariffs are far more likely to hurt the Eurozone than the uk.

posted on 4/6/16

Ibe-wan I agree with you.

Immigration has been the battleground for many a leave supporter, and it's a battle they cannot win.

Everyone concedes that immigration is a must, that the UK relies on.

The EU ideal is to raise standards and quality of social and product quality.
This is what it does, and does well.

Not a single leave/Brexit idea led person can tell me one law from the EU which they find totally unpalatable.

posted on 4/6/16

IF we vote to leave. the chances of the Eurozone breaking apart will be greatly increased

-------
Doubt it.

We aren't in the eurozone as we haven't adopted the Euro.

posted on 4/6/16

along with our freedom to negotiate our own trade agreements

--------
The EU is our largest trading partner, bar none. The destination of most of our exports.

We have free trade with the EU, by virtue of being in it.

What pray tell will the freedom to negotiate our trade agreements yield with our largest trading partner?

Note : you can't get better than free.

comment by Szoboss (U6997)

posted on 4/6/16

comment by Redinthehead - FreeGaza - فلسطين (U1860)
posted 4 minutes ago
Ibe-wan I agree with you.

Immigration has been the battleground for many a leave supporter, and it's a battle they cannot win.

Everyone concedes that immigration is a must, that the UK relies on.

The EU ideal is to raise standards and quality of social and product quality.
This is what it does, and does well.

Not a single leave/Brexit idea led person can tell me one law from the EU which they find totally unpalatable.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Whilst that's true, the remain argument has also tried to brand those wanting exit as xenophobes.

I'm 40 and the last time the public got to vote on this I wasn't born. I've done my own digging and come to my own conclusions. However, the strongest feeling I have is that this is a wasted opportunity. As far as I'm concerned there will be no mandate for the EU because no debate has really been had.

For that, I blame both sides.

posted on 4/6/16

anyway, all this brexit, in/out crap, is overshadowing something else.

there's another referendum, happening tomorrow, which could possibly have far more import on the future of political/financial governance, capitalism and social structure. the swiss are voting on an unconditional basic income.
far reaching implications for welfare states, pensions, taxation, etc. especially with the increasing automation of jobs, which is only going to reduce the worlds taxable, working population.

and somewhat ironically, it looks like the deciding factor for the non-eu member country could be immigration, due to having signed up to the freedom of movement of eu nationals, they're worried that voting yes will mean an unsustainable influx of people from poorer nations.

posted on 4/6/16

comment by 19th title coming soon. (U12879)
posted 4 minutes ago
anyway, all this brexit, in/out crap, is overshadowing something else.

there's another referendum, happening tomorrow, which could possibly have far more import on the future of political/financial governance, capitalism and social structure. the swiss are voting on an unconditional basic income.
far reaching implications for welfare states, pensions, taxation, etc. especially with the increasing automation of jobs, which is only going to reduce the worlds taxable, working population.

and somewhat ironically, it looks like the deciding factor for the non-eu member country could be immigration, due to having signed up to the freedom of movement of eu nationals, they're worried that voting yes will mean an unsustainable influx of people from poorer nations.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe finland are already trialling the basic income in a few areas. I don't personally see it as a great working system at the moment, but possibly in the future

posted on 4/6/16

Let me know if I'm wrong..

Leave campaigner claiming the reason as to why they want out:

a.) To control immigration (restrict immigration)
b.) Do not want European law imposed on UK
c.) They want less bureaucracy
d.) Stop "£350m" "payment" to EU


Reality/fact

a.) Exiting EU would not give UK ability to restrict immigration. Why?
1. UK will likely remain part of the single market and to be part of the single market you are REQUIRED to ABIDE by free movement of people within the single market. If the UK chooses to leave the single market then that would be like committing economic suicide.. As "great" as the country may be, it probably wouldn't be sensible, regardless of which way you're voting..

2. There are 1m+ Britons living in EU. Any restriction to EU citizens coming to Britain will force EU to take similar approach to UK citizens (i.e. deportation).


b.) Again in/out, UK will likely remain part of the single market. Members of the single market are government by European law. So in reality, exiting EU will not get rid of EU laws, unless we decide to leave the single market. Believe it or not, we ARE NOT going to leave the single market whatever happens, our politicians won't let that happen.

c.) Less bureaucracy. The who purpose of EU was and still is to cut down trade bureaucracy across EU states. Exiting the EU will likely increase bureaucracy.. Visa, work permit, border check, tax, tariff, etc. Again would make no difference whichever way you vote as the so called current bureaucracies will still remain if we choose to be part of the single market.

d.) Stop "£350m" "payment" to EU..
I'm sure you'd get the gist by now.. Whether the figures are right/wrong, fact is that we'll still have to pay the sum if we are to remain part of the single market..


Conclusion
In or Out, we're still going to be part of the single market and being part of the single market requires you to stick by EU rules & requirements..

IMO this referendum is just a waste of time brought by years of pressure from Tory backbenchers.

posted on 4/6/16

^

"Leave campaigners claim the following reasons.. "

As for those claiming that Britain will be free to trade with others around the world..

Like running around kissing the backside of the likes of India and China? .

posted on 4/6/16

As for those claiming that Britain will be free to trade with others around the world..

-------
It's crazy, some claim we will trade with the commonwealth to make Britain great again. Only thing is, the commonwealth was there for Britain to take advantage of and not for us to sell things to.

How many countries worldwide measure up to the average disposable income per capita of the EU bloc?

Not many that's for sure, and the leave campaigners want us to ditch this massive free trade area on our doorstep for other markets half way across the world?

What a fecking joke of a policy that is.

Again on EU legislature, can anyone point to a piece of EU legislation which is wholly wrong?

Metro has slunk off, hopefully he comes back with some reason, I'm very pro - remain, but open to hear counter arguments

posted on 4/6/16

I'm back - cut me some slack, it is Saturday night lads

Anyway, this 'free trade area' will remain free. There are no tariffs on goods across the entire continent and that's for EU members and non-EU members.

In fact, Andrew Neil belittled a 'remain' candidate for trying to claim otherwise.

posted on 4/6/16

comment by Metro.⚽️ (U6770)
posted 1 second ago
I'm back - cut me some slack, it is Saturday night lads

Anyway, this 'free trade area' will remain free. There are no tariffs on goods across the entire continent and that's for EU members and non-EU members.

In fact, Andrew Neil belittled a 'remain' candidate for trying to claim otherwise.


----------------------------------------------------------------------
You are right.. It will remain free, however with the same rules, requirements and laws. We'll get no "special" treatment. Makes you wonder why there's a referendum in the first place..

posted on 4/6/16

While Patrick Minford a vote leave economist said there would almost certainly be trade tariffs on the EU.

posted on 4/6/16

*on the UK by the EU

posted on 4/6/16

So the point is why pay the membership fee when The benefit of free trade is available anyway - not to mention the fact that you're then free to make trade agreements with the growing markets.. Which I note someone recently laughed at. I think they forget just how big our economy is.

They're ill-informed.

posted on 4/6/16

So the point is why pay the membership fee when The benefit of free trade is available anyway

-----
Who says it's available anyway?

posted on 4/6/16

comment by Metro.⚽️ (U6770)
posted 18 seconds ago
So the point is why pay the membership fee when The benefit of free trade is available anyway - not to mention the fact that you're then free to make trade agreements with the growing markets.. Which I note someone recently laughed at. I think they forget just how big our economy is.

They're ill-informed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

We will always have to pay membership fees for the EU. It's how it works. If we want any trade with the EU we have to pay for it

posted on 4/6/16

Who says it's available anyway?
-----

Me - The entire continent has no tariffs on goods. Why can't you grasp this?

posted on 4/6/16

Then you havent read my point Brennie
There are nations that are not in the EU and have no tariffs imposed on them.

They do not pay an EU membership fee

posted on 4/6/16

comment by Metro.⚽️ (U6770)
posted 3 minutes ago
So the point is why pay the membership fee when The benefit of free trade is available anyway - not to mention the fact that you're then free to make trade agreements with the growing markets.. Which I note someone recently laughed at. I think they forget just how big our economy is.

They're ill-informed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Do you seriously think EU would allow us to have the benefit of the free trade without abiding by their requirements?

Assuming the figures are correct, the only reason we keep paying it is to have the benefit free trade. It's quite naive to think we'd still be getting the benefits if we stop paying the fee..

posted on 4/6/16

comment by Metro.⚽️ (U6770)
posted 3 minutes ago
Who says it's available anyway?
-----

Me - The entire continent has no tariffs on goods. Why can't you grasp this?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's only due to the single market.. Like other members, we pay the fee to remain part of the single market..

posted on 4/6/16

comment by {honestlivpool~five~times} 👽 🐎 #worldpeace (U1661)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Metro.⚽️ (U6770)
posted 3 minutes ago
So the point is why pay the membership fee when The benefit of free trade is available anyway - not to mention the fact that you're then free to make trade agreements with the growing markets.. Which I note someone recently laughed at. I think they forget just how big our economy is.

They're ill-informed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Do you seriously think EU would allow us to have the benefit of the free trade without abiding by their requirements?

Assuming the figures are correct, the only reason we keep paying it is to have the benefit free trade. It's quite naive to think we'd still be getting the benefits if we stop paying the fee..
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That would be like having all the benefits of player without paying the player's wages? Common sense would tell you that it's frankly not possible.

posted on 4/6/16

Metro, you have to face facts.

The reason we have free trade is because we are in the EU and subcribe to members conditions.

You said Turkey didn't have any tariffs to pay, when I showed you they do.

Still Metro you must have read something of some certain facts to have the conviction you do, so can you share that with us?

posted on 4/6/16

I'm torn, for me the arguments for in make more sense but then I do not want further integration into what I see as a flawed and failing project. Vote in and I think we will end up part of a European super state

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