Considering our current position, having PL experience counts more than CL.

Kagawa, for instance, had CL experience and has failed to settle into the league...

If he can hold his own, at 18, in the PL... chances are he will be just fine by the time we get back to the competition.

The only real risk, as with any player, is a nasty injury at this developmental stage.

"The only real risk, as with any player, is a nasty injury at this developmental stage."

No, the real risk is that he doesn't turn out to be good enough.

Because, put simply, no one knows enough about Shaw at the moment to say he'll be worth it.

I agree that PL experience is important - I think it was Tottenham's biggest error last summer.

But if you're paying top dollar, surely it should be for proven talent rather than potential. Okay, so some cases will work out.

But a lot won't work out.

I just think we're better than that.

Can anyone say with a straight face that he has more than doubled his worth in one season?
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Well, he has certainly improved.... A near flawless 2nd season, played 50% more games and ended in the PL team of the season.

If he was worth around £15m before, then such a top year will increase his price by at the very least £5m-£10m

the fact that we have not addressed the major problem area: central midfield. People are rightly apprehensive.

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If we spent £30 million on Shaw at the expense of finally sorting out the midfield, I'll join you in being scandalised. At the moment I don't assume this is the case.

Okay, I have an interesting question for us all to think about.

If you had a left back who was 19 and you knew for certain he'd be as good as Ashley Cole, how much would you value him at, now?

No, the real risk is that he doesn't turn out to be good enough.
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If he never improves on this season's form... He will still be one of the best LBs in the country. All he needs do now is keep up the consistency, which, without a major injury, isn't the biggest gamble in the world.

Of course, factors like being in the limelight, the pricetag, moving club etc can all play a part... But that can happen to far older players too (Torres).

Ji Sung Park's Cousin (U2958)

That's quite a bold statement - have you watched him play live much?

I've watched him a couple of times... he's definitely still got things to learn. He was caught out badly in one game - the opposition escapes me.

Fantastic potential though.

If you had a left back who was 19 and you knew for certain he'd be as good as Ashley Cole, how much would you value him at, now?

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I reckon that would depend on various factors. I'm sure our commercial people look at non-footballing value as well. Being English and closer to the D. Beckham end of the scale than the P. Neville end probably boosts the returns we can get from Korean noodle sponsorships and duvet cover sales.

I have seen him play several full games, probably the same ones you did, eg, against the big teams.

Players make mistakes. That will never change.

If we got 15 seasons out of him like his last campaign, we will be very, very happy.

Red Russian (U4715)

Fair enough, but roughly what sort of budget would you say is fair enough?

If you knew for shaw (bad joke) that he'd be as good as Cole?

Ji Sung Park's Cousin (U2958)

A season at Southampton is different to a season at Man Utd.

I understand what you mean, but in my opinion £30 million would be scandalous if he didn't improve from where he's at.

If you knew for shaw (bad joke) that he'd be as good as Cole?

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I like what you did there.

If we could guarantee that, like Cole, Shaw would be a world class left back for over a decade, I'd say he'd be worth a good deal more than £30 million in today's prices.

Red Russian (U4715)

Really? So how much?

Full backs are a huge part of the modern game.

15 years of Cole like quality would easily command £50m+, probably quite a bit more as there would be an insane bidding war, but it is fairytale stuff as no such guarantee will ever happen.

If we are going to play 4231 then we need top FBs that can get forwards, add the width to our attacking play and put in a decent cross.

£50 million plus?

I really don't agree.

To put it into context, in 2008 (i.e. when the world transfer record was still 'only' the £46 million Real paid for Zidane) Barcelona paid £23 million rising to £30 million for a 25 year-old Dani Alves. We can argue about the comparisons - Alves was obviously a more proven entity, while Shaw represents more years of future service. However, taking into account the inflation in the market since then, it's fair to say that £30 million would be on the low side for a world class LB at the start of his career.

Red Russian (U4715)

Yes, and I could pick up examples such as Evra, who may not be as highly regarded as Alves, but who was a lot cheaper.

But here's the thing - Shaw isn't a world class left back.

He could be, but he's not at the moment.

But here's the thing - Shaw isn't a world class left back.

He could be, but he's not at the moment.
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That wasn't really your argument though You asked RR to put up a price on the assumption that Shaw would be WC... Be mean to change the parameters of the challenge now

SH.AGGARD!

I really don't agree.
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Of course you don't, and that is why you asked such an obviously loaded question.

Every club in the world would bid on a player that was gaurunteed to be world class for over a decade. the price would be astronomical in the modern game, especially with full backs being such an integral part of most club's attacking philosophy.

MC Park Jirascal: The Man Who Stares at Gotze (U13708)

Ah - you're correct, sorry - I had wrongly assumed what he meant.

Okay - fair point. But can we really value one player on what Barca paid for someone?

Presumably any winger at Bales level would be worth over £100 million?

"Of course you don't, and that is why you asked such an obviously loaded question."

Give it a rest.

It was just a question that I found interesting - not one that I thought would help strengthen my case.

I thought this was a conversation, not an argument.

Obviously you'd need to ignore the fact that every club in the world would bid because of the guarantee - a little common sense please.

But here's the thing - Shaw isn't a world class left back.

He could be, but he's not at the moment.

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Winston, you moved the goal posts. I was answering your question as to what he'd be worth if we could guarantee he'd be as good as Ashley Cole. You baulked at my suggestion that he'd be worth considerably more than £30 million. I showed my reasoning for that claim.

Would I be happier if we were spending £20 million on Shaw? Of course. I'd be happier still if he'd run down his contract and we got him for free. But I'm not going to lose sleep over a £30 million fee for a young player who already looks outstanding and is in an important position we very much need to strengthen.

"he is hasnt played in CL so unproven in CL so not worth the it" is the stupidest argument against Shaw. Evra, Butner, gibbs, Vermaelen, clichy, kolarov and washed up Cole played in CL this season. If anyone bothered to watch shaw for more than couple of times would see, he is already as good as any of the above mentioned LBs and defensively better than all of them.

plus, Is rooney CL proven when we bought him for top money?

Red Russian (U4715)

As you'll see above, I mistook the reason for your reply - my apologies.

But I don't think one transfer by Barca proves the point.

I'm not going to lose sleep over it, either. But I hope that the club negotiate a decent deal that is based on future achievements, rather than bowing to whatever Southampton ask for.