Screen - #GiggsLegend (U8522)
On the contrary, the only thing that's stupid is taking my comment and then applying that to mean that playing in the CL means you're automatically better.
Of course it doesn't.
But having not played CL football or International football (aside from one game), along with only two seasons as a pro in the top league, there's no doubt that you have less information about whether he will be a great player.
Therefore you're buying potential rather than the finished article, and the price should reflect that.
If you've struggled so far, let me just clarify - nowhere have I suggested that we can only buy CL players. That would be absurd - just as absurd as you seemingly believing that was my point.
Winston
we were buying potential when we bought rafael and fabio. In shaw's case we are not just buying potential, Shaw is already one of the BEST LBs IN PL AT PRESENT. proven as he was chosen for the PL team of the year.
Is 25-30m expensive? yes, Is it worth it? Yes,
30m is worth it for a LB who is 18 and even at current level of skill, a mile ahead of any of our LBs and will certainly improve
Obviously you'd need to ignore the fact that every club in the world would bid because of the guarantee - a little common sense please.
-----------------------------------------
Sorry, yes, i will be sure to apply very careful logic to your next fairytale. Mybe something along the lines of "If Ronaldo could fly, would he score more goals?".
Screen - #GiggsLegend (U8522)
Worth it, in your opinion.
Not in mine.
The only question for me would be the opportunity cost of letting him go i.e. the benefit to our rivals, and whether there are other options out there.
Those are difficult to quantify and ultimately it's a matter of opinion.
I don't think Van Gaal would have seen too much of this guy - so who has made the decision (if any) ?
Ji Sung Park's Cousin (U2958)
I think that response says more than I possibly could about your presence in this debate.
Grow up, lad.
comment by Metro. (U6770)
posted 3 seconds ago
I don't think Van Gaal would have seen too much of this guy - so who has made the decision (if any) ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------Sir Alex, classic Fergie buy.... Young, british defender that has proven himself at a PL club and looks ready to take the step up.
I think that response says more than I possibly could about your presence in this debate.
------------------------------------
You asked a ridiculous question, then got upset that people didn't give you the answer that you were looking for.
You'll have to excuse me if I find that laughable.
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 3 minutes ago
Screen - #GiggsLegend (U8522)
Worth it, in your opinion.
Not in mine.
The only question for me would be the opportunity cost of letting him go i.e. the benefit to our rivals, and whether there are other options out there.
Those are difficult to quantify and ultimately it's a matter of opinion.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ok, so what are the reasons for that compelled you to form that opinion may I ask?
comment by Ji Sung Park's Cousin (U2958)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Metro. (U6770)
posted 3 seconds ago
I don't think Van Gaal would have seen too much of this guy - so who has made the decision (if any) ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------Sir Alex, classic Fergie buy.... Young, british defender that has proven himself at a PL club and looks ready to take the step up.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But Ferguson left his post over 12 months ago.
Has Van Gaal just taken Fergusons word ?
Ji Sung Park's Cousin (U2958)
It's people like you that spoil conversations like this.
I asked a hypothetical question. I didn't think it would prove anything, I was just asking it.
Who got upset?
I think you'll find I told you that I disagree with your answer.
It seems that you're the one getting upset.
Let me know if/when you're ready to return to an adult conversation, because I'm not going to waste anymore time with this pathetic argument.
Just for clarity - it's not a ridiculous question. I think £30 is not far off what you'd pay for the finished article as a left back, and Shaw is not a finished article.
Clearly, you disagree. No need to behave like a child.
Worth it, in your opinion.
Not in mine.
-------------------------------
A point I have been trying to make is that it's very hard for you (or me) to judge value when we are purely going on our assessments (themselves imperfect) of player quality. That is one metric that influences value. But the commercial contexts - projected income, etc. - define the baseline for what good players are worth. That's something we have no idea about.
We look likely to lose Vidic, Rio and Evra, this summer....
We really need a player that can come in and hit the ground running, even world class players from other countries are less likely to do that than a player with PL experience.
The best LB of the last season is for sale, so we should be in for him. If that means paying above the average, then so be it.
As RR said from the start, if that money is coming out of the CM fund, then it is a big risk.. But that seems highly unlikely.
Red Russian (U4715)
Agreed - would be interested as to what sort of salary package he'd be on.
That's one in the box for paying a higher amount - if we could get him on a lower salary than a proven world class star, then it equates to quite a lot of money saved per year!
My issue here is that if we were going to spend big money on a LB, there are far better, established LBs we could buy.
I am pretty sure if we offered Bayern 30m for Alaba, they would sell him.
I have watched Shaw play about 5-7 times and truth be told, he looks a steady player but nothing special. He may become a cracking player (I have my doubts) but he could also pale into insignificance (like Wayne Bridge) and that's 30m down the drain.
Amazing that some feel the price is adequate, it is not, Southampton will do the best they can to keep their talent and fair play to them but Utd should not be stupid as well.
Irwin, Silvestre, Heinze and Evra all came in at decent prices and gave us years of service. None of them cost a tenth of what Shaw is being sold for and it is incredibly stupid for Utd to not look elsewhere for alternatives.
Controao imo is one of the best full backs around - I'd look at him before Shaw
I am pretty sure if we offered Bayern 30m for Alaba, they would sell him.
---------------------------------------------------
no they wont,
Even if they did will Alaba come to united? Itll be great If we could buy Alba instead of Shaw but it isnt gona happen, Bayen arnt going to sell one of their best rated youngster and a prominent first team player for 30m, this is 2014 not 1994
can understand the reluctance by some to spend 30 mill on shaw but sometimes you have to take a punt with young players and thrust the judgement of the scouting staff and coaches. I havent read all comments but has anyone mentioned ashey cole as a short term option
It's stupid money but he has just made the team of the season in arguably the most competitive league in the World, at only 18. (4 years younger than Phil Jones and 6 years younger than Chris Smalling)
Jones was not far off 20 million, no one seemed bothered at that and I can't remember him getting the same hype as Shaw tbh
And Van Gaal is famous for working with young players and I have little doubt he would love to work with an 18 year old Shaw and improve him over the next few seasons. Look how Shaw took to international football like a duck to water too
We ain't getting Shaw for 50p. He's one of the hottest defensive prospects out there
Like the scouting team did wih young Bebe, right?
comment by ManUtdDaredevil (U9612)
posted 19 seconds ago
Like the scouting team did wih young Bebe, right?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"Look how Shaw took to international football like a duck to water too"
In his one appearance, for 45 minutes against Denmark, in a friendly, you mean?
Do you work for Southampton's negotiation team by any chance?
maybe the club should be looking to poach some of the southhampton scouts with the success theyve had in the last 5-10 years
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 49 seconds ago
"Look how Shaw took to international football like a duck to water too"
In his one appearance, for 45 minutes against Denmark, in a friendly, you mean?
------------------------------------------
Yes. He wasn't remotely fazed on his full international debut and looked classy
Do you work for Southampton's negotiation team by any chance?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Nope
Do you teach at the 'learn how to be a condescending dk head' school?
I'd love to know exactly how players are valued. Fans, especially so when it comes to valuing their own players, come up with valuations all the time. I often wonder what they are basing those valuations on. I would imagine factors such as position (defenders/goalkeepers being valued less than attacking players for example) influence their decision. Plus how long a player has left on his contract. Both perfectly valid reasons.
But how accurate are the figures that us mere fans come up with? Clubs, when valuing players will have several factors to take into account that enables them to come up with a realistic figure. A club signing a player will not only have to think about the transfer fee, but how much the player will command in wages/bonuses over the course of a contract. I suppose the thinking being that, because players are ultimately assets, the possible revenue boost that a player will bring in over the course of his contract is deducted from the overall amount that the player costs the club.
At the moment, the figure being quoted for Shaw is probably speculative (that doesn't mean that it isn't correct however). Let's say that United do sign him for £30m, on a 5 year contract worth £100k per week (including bonuses). The cost to United over that period therefore being £56m. What could United expect to receive in return? Shirt sales/merchandise is one area in which they would get a return - how much I simply couldn't say. Other areas would of course relate to his performances on the pitch and his contribution to any success that United have. His age is also a huge plus in this regard, as it is likely his valuation won't reduce for many years, especially if he is a success (in which case it will most likely increase), meaning that he will remain a saleable asset for quite some time, and thus United can recoup on their outlay should they choose to do so. If he does stay for the majority/rest of his career, then obviously he would only do so if he was a success. In which case, a £30m transfer fee (contract notwithstanding) for many years service could ultimately be deemed to good value.
Sign in if you want to comment
Shaw
Page 4 of 8
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posted on 21/5/14
Screen - #GiggsLegend (U8522)
On the contrary, the only thing that's stupid is taking my comment and then applying that to mean that playing in the CL means you're automatically better.
Of course it doesn't.
But having not played CL football or International football (aside from one game), along with only two seasons as a pro in the top league, there's no doubt that you have less information about whether he will be a great player.
Therefore you're buying potential rather than the finished article, and the price should reflect that.
If you've struggled so far, let me just clarify - nowhere have I suggested that we can only buy CL players. That would be absurd - just as absurd as you seemingly believing that was my point.
posted on 21/5/14
Winston
we were buying potential when we bought rafael and fabio. In shaw's case we are not just buying potential, Shaw is already one of the BEST LBs IN PL AT PRESENT. proven as he was chosen for the PL team of the year.
Is 25-30m expensive? yes, Is it worth it? Yes,
30m is worth it for a LB who is 18 and even at current level of skill, a mile ahead of any of our LBs and will certainly improve
posted on 21/5/14
Obviously you'd need to ignore the fact that every club in the world would bid because of the guarantee - a little common sense please.
-----------------------------------------
Sorry, yes, i will be sure to apply very careful logic to your next fairytale. Mybe something along the lines of "If Ronaldo could fly, would he score more goals?".
posted on 21/5/14
Screen - #GiggsLegend (U8522)
Worth it, in your opinion.
Not in mine.
The only question for me would be the opportunity cost of letting him go i.e. the benefit to our rivals, and whether there are other options out there.
Those are difficult to quantify and ultimately it's a matter of opinion.
posted on 21/5/14
I don't think Van Gaal would have seen too much of this guy - so who has made the decision (if any) ?
posted on 21/5/14
Ji Sung Park's Cousin (U2958)
I think that response says more than I possibly could about your presence in this debate.
Grow up, lad.
posted on 21/5/14
comment by Metro. (U6770)
posted 3 seconds ago
I don't think Van Gaal would have seen too much of this guy - so who has made the decision (if any) ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------Sir Alex, classic Fergie buy.... Young, british defender that has proven himself at a PL club and looks ready to take the step up.
posted on 21/5/14
I think that response says more than I possibly could about your presence in this debate.
------------------------------------
You asked a ridiculous question, then got upset that people didn't give you the answer that you were looking for.
You'll have to excuse me if I find that laughable.
posted on 21/5/14
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 3 minutes ago
Screen - #GiggsLegend (U8522)
Worth it, in your opinion.
Not in mine.
The only question for me would be the opportunity cost of letting him go i.e. the benefit to our rivals, and whether there are other options out there.
Those are difficult to quantify and ultimately it's a matter of opinion.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ok, so what are the reasons for that compelled you to form that opinion may I ask?
posted on 21/5/14
comment by Ji Sung Park's Cousin (U2958)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Metro. (U6770)
posted 3 seconds ago
I don't think Van Gaal would have seen too much of this guy - so who has made the decision (if any) ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------Sir Alex, classic Fergie buy.... Young, british defender that has proven himself at a PL club and looks ready to take the step up.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But Ferguson left his post over 12 months ago.
Has Van Gaal just taken Fergusons word ?
posted on 21/5/14
Ji Sung Park's Cousin (U2958)
It's people like you that spoil conversations like this.
I asked a hypothetical question. I didn't think it would prove anything, I was just asking it.
Who got upset?
I think you'll find I told you that I disagree with your answer.
It seems that you're the one getting upset.
Let me know if/when you're ready to return to an adult conversation, because I'm not going to waste anymore time with this pathetic argument.
Just for clarity - it's not a ridiculous question. I think £30 is not far off what you'd pay for the finished article as a left back, and Shaw is not a finished article.
Clearly, you disagree. No need to behave like a child.
posted on 21/5/14
Worth it, in your opinion.
Not in mine.
-------------------------------
A point I have been trying to make is that it's very hard for you (or me) to judge value when we are purely going on our assessments (themselves imperfect) of player quality. That is one metric that influences value. But the commercial contexts - projected income, etc. - define the baseline for what good players are worth. That's something we have no idea about.
posted on 21/5/14
We look likely to lose Vidic, Rio and Evra, this summer....
We really need a player that can come in and hit the ground running, even world class players from other countries are less likely to do that than a player with PL experience.
The best LB of the last season is for sale, so we should be in for him. If that means paying above the average, then so be it.
As RR said from the start, if that money is coming out of the CM fund, then it is a big risk.. But that seems highly unlikely.
posted on 21/5/14
Red Russian (U4715)
Agreed - would be interested as to what sort of salary package he'd be on.
That's one in the box for paying a higher amount - if we could get him on a lower salary than a proven world class star, then it equates to quite a lot of money saved per year!
posted on 21/5/14
My issue here is that if we were going to spend big money on a LB, there are far better, established LBs we could buy.
I am pretty sure if we offered Bayern 30m for Alaba, they would sell him.
I have watched Shaw play about 5-7 times and truth be told, he looks a steady player but nothing special. He may become a cracking player (I have my doubts) but he could also pale into insignificance (like Wayne Bridge) and that's 30m down the drain.
Amazing that some feel the price is adequate, it is not, Southampton will do the best they can to keep their talent and fair play to them but Utd should not be stupid as well.
Irwin, Silvestre, Heinze and Evra all came in at decent prices and gave us years of service. None of them cost a tenth of what Shaw is being sold for and it is incredibly stupid for Utd to not look elsewhere for alternatives.
posted on 21/5/14
Controao imo is one of the best full backs around - I'd look at him before Shaw
posted on 21/5/14
I am pretty sure if we offered Bayern 30m for Alaba, they would sell him.
---------------------------------------------------
no they wont,
Even if they did will Alaba come to united? Itll be great If we could buy Alba instead of Shaw but it isnt gona happen, Bayen arnt going to sell one of their best rated youngster and a prominent first team player for 30m, this is 2014 not 1994
posted on 21/5/14
can understand the reluctance by some to spend 30 mill on shaw but sometimes you have to take a punt with young players and thrust the judgement of the scouting staff and coaches. I havent read all comments but has anyone mentioned ashey cole as a short term option
posted on 21/5/14
It's stupid money but he has just made the team of the season in arguably the most competitive league in the World, at only 18. (4 years younger than Phil Jones and 6 years younger than Chris Smalling)
Jones was not far off 20 million, no one seemed bothered at that and I can't remember him getting the same hype as Shaw tbh
And Van Gaal is famous for working with young players and I have little doubt he would love to work with an 18 year old Shaw and improve him over the next few seasons. Look how Shaw took to international football like a duck to water too
We ain't getting Shaw for 50p. He's one of the hottest defensive prospects out there
posted on 21/5/14
Like the scouting team did wih young Bebe, right?
posted on 21/5/14
comment by ManUtdDaredevil (U9612)
posted 19 seconds ago
Like the scouting team did wih young Bebe, right?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
posted on 21/5/14
"Look how Shaw took to international football like a duck to water too"
In his one appearance, for 45 minutes against Denmark, in a friendly, you mean?
Do you work for Southampton's negotiation team by any chance?
posted on 21/5/14
maybe the club should be looking to poach some of the southhampton scouts with the success theyve had in the last 5-10 years
posted on 21/5/14
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 49 seconds ago
"Look how Shaw took to international football like a duck to water too"
In his one appearance, for 45 minutes against Denmark, in a friendly, you mean?
------------------------------------------
Yes. He wasn't remotely fazed on his full international debut and looked classy
Do you work for Southampton's negotiation team by any chance?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Nope
Do you teach at the 'learn how to be a condescending dk head' school?
posted on 21/5/14
I'd love to know exactly how players are valued. Fans, especially so when it comes to valuing their own players, come up with valuations all the time. I often wonder what they are basing those valuations on. I would imagine factors such as position (defenders/goalkeepers being valued less than attacking players for example) influence their decision. Plus how long a player has left on his contract. Both perfectly valid reasons.
But how accurate are the figures that us mere fans come up with? Clubs, when valuing players will have several factors to take into account that enables them to come up with a realistic figure. A club signing a player will not only have to think about the transfer fee, but how much the player will command in wages/bonuses over the course of a contract. I suppose the thinking being that, because players are ultimately assets, the possible revenue boost that a player will bring in over the course of his contract is deducted from the overall amount that the player costs the club.
At the moment, the figure being quoted for Shaw is probably speculative (that doesn't mean that it isn't correct however). Let's say that United do sign him for £30m, on a 5 year contract worth £100k per week (including bonuses). The cost to United over that period therefore being £56m. What could United expect to receive in return? Shirt sales/merchandise is one area in which they would get a return - how much I simply couldn't say. Other areas would of course relate to his performances on the pitch and his contribution to any success that United have. His age is also a huge plus in this regard, as it is likely his valuation won't reduce for many years, especially if he is a success (in which case it will most likely increase), meaning that he will remain a saleable asset for quite some time, and thus United can recoup on their outlay should they choose to do so. If he does stay for the majority/rest of his career, then obviously he would only do so if he was a success. In which case, a £30m transfer fee (contract notwithstanding) for many years service could ultimately be deemed to good value.
Page 4 of 8
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