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comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 1 minute ago
Yes short term things are easier to look at but over a longer term it gets much harder. Where were all these economists that predicted the recession of 2008? Who is to say the EU project will sail along smoothly over the next 20 years.
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The economic forecast of 07/08 was forecast. It was the regulation that fell down. And in particular the sub-prime US housing market. The knock on effects happened so fast, (and UK lenders did not have robust enough contingences) it was too late to control. As seen with Northern Rock.

Ironically it vital for the UK that the EU is successful. If it crashes, (while highly unlikely) so does the UK. They are our largest trading partner. Geographically that will never change.

It is not possible for the UK to mass import/export perishable (consumable etc) goods with the likes of India/US/Australia. For obvious reasons.

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Whilst I'm concious of avoiding being a complete pessimist - I really don't know where this glib approach to the economy comes from, Cal. I wish I could share your apparent apathy.

Just because the BBC didn't see a storm coming, doesn't mean I stopped watching the wather forecast.

comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 26 seconds ago
Sorry I don't recall all these economists predicting the meltdown in 2008.
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The NY university for economics, the UK policy research in economics, the Bank of India, Euro Pacific, and countless others predicted the global financial crisis.

But poignantly they were all ridiculed as being scaremongers.

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comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? (U3126)
posted 57 seconds ago
comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 26 seconds ago
Sorry I don't recall all these economists predicting the meltdown in 2008.
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The NY university for economics, the UK policy research in economics, the Bank of India, Euro Pacific, and countless others predicted the global financial crisis.

But poignantly they were all ridiculed as being scaremongers.
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You mean just like Cal is doing now?!

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Cal Neva

There were a number books written on it.
A few selected economic quotes from 2005/06:

“will hurt millions of ordinary borrowers, and will inflict prolonged dislocation and economic, social and personal pain on those largely ignorant of the causes of the crisis, and innocent of responsibility for it.”

“slumping house prices were “enough to trigger a US recession” and, also that month, that “sub-prime lending institutions may thus be the proverbial canary in the mine signaling an ugly housing bust that “will be associated with a broader economic recession”.

“The crash of the housing market will not be pretty. It is virtually certain to lead to a second dip to the recession. Even worse, millions of families will see the bulk of their savings disappear as homes in some of the bubble areas lose 30 per cent, or more, of their value.”

“The rollout of complicated instruments such as credit-default swaps and mortgage-backed securities has made the global financial system a riskier place. Indeed, such developments may also create a greater – albeit still small – probability of a catastrophic meltdown”.

So while the consensus was not universal, in regard to Brexit economists are pretty much in agreement.

Surely therefore the sensible thing to have in place is a contingency plan?

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comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? (U3126)
posted 0 seconds ago
Cal Neva

There were a number books written on it.
A few selected economic quotes from 2005/06:

“will hurt millions of ordinary borrowers, and will inflict prolonged dislocation and economic, social and personal pain on those largely ignorant of the causes of the crisis, and innocent of responsibility for it.”

“slumping house prices were “enough to trigger a US recession” and, also that month, that “sub-prime lending institutions may thus be the proverbial canary in the mine signaling an ugly housing bust that “will be associated with a broader economic recession”.

“The crash of the housing market will not be pretty. It is virtually certain to lead to a second dip to the recession. Even worse, millions of families will see the bulk of their savings disappear as homes in some of the bubble areas lose 30 per cent, or more, of their value.”

“The rollout of complicated instruments such as credit-default swaps and mortgage-backed securities has made the global financial system a riskier place. Indeed, such developments may also create a greater – albeit still small – probability of a catastrophic meltdown”.

So while the consensus was not universal, in regard to Brexit economists are pretty much in agreement.

Surely therefore the sensible thing to have in place is a contingency plan?
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Have you seen the film the Big Short?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/

comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 1 minute ago
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-03-05/economics-can-t-predict-the-big-things-like-recessions
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As I stated previously by the time the US housing market slumped - and stock market crashed it was too late for the UK to react.

Are you suggesting we simply ignore the available evidence?

And forecasts aside, the government has already had to borrow an extra £60b to manage Brexit in the short term.

Who do you think is going to repay this money?

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comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 12 seconds ago
Tbh this is my last post for now as I have other things to do and I'm getting bored of repeating myself. You clearly think Brexit is bad in the short term and long term and as you live in an area that has benefited from EU funding I can understand that. All I'm saying is over the long term we cannot predict the outcome of leaving the EU whether we will be better off or worse off.
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No worries, and have a good Christmas

Brexit is great news for any working family in an already built up and overpopulated area that has suffered from an influx of European or other unskilled workers causing the salaries to stagnate over the last 5 years at least.
Multiculturalism is the biggest failed exercise this country has embarked on in the last 50 years and the accommodating nature of left leaning councils and authorities has contributed to the sense of isolation and ethnic enclaves up and down the country.
Opening borders 7 years before required was a total slap in the face to the British and settled migrant families already here. That can't be put right wholly by leaving the eu but it is a start that can help reduce the figures of net migration of over 300000 per year which even to those leafy living lefties can recognise is completely unsustainable in the major cities and has harmed many rural towns already.

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A bite....

bertrand small

A few (common) misconceptions in your post.

Of all the evidence available those who have seen a depreciation in wages, are seasonal economic migrants. UK nationals are largely unaffected*. Economic migrants from the EU represent less than 100k people per year. The latest ONS figures demonstrate EU net migration is circa 160k. Of which over 60k are students. Who either return home, or enter the UK work force, thus contributing to GDP.

When the UK leaves the EU, we will have to accept increased numbers of non-EU migrants. Comprehensive FTA agreements include free movement of services and labour. Which is the model the UK government are pursuing.

So while there may be a decrease in skilled EU labour there will be significant increases in migrants from other areas of the world. India for example.

*If migration did force down UK wages as some suggest, this has not been replicated elsewhere in the EU. Despite the likes of Germany having considerable more migrants than the UK, they have seen a real time increase in wages.

Which is why all the evidence points to policies implemented by the UK government, being the cause (zero hours contracts etc) not the EU.

Multiculturalism is the biggest failed exercise this country has embarked on in the last 50 years and the accommodating nature of left leaning councils and authorities has contributed to the sense of isolation and ethnic enclaves up and down the country.

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Who's failure is it? I think "people" in general.

I hope the migrant population work hard acquire wealth and move up in the world.

Just like many of the migrant families and their progeny have done since the 50's.

I love it when any generation of those arriving in the UK is wealthier than any of the so called "indigenous" population, as it shows starkly in real terms who exactly has failed.

Was just reading this:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38390150

Regardless of personal opinon on the EU, they have successfully performed as a regulator when government legislation has been found to be inappropriate.

In the above case the Investigatory Powers Act was found to be completely haphazard. In that why would over 40 government agencies need access to your web browsing history, or your phone records without good reason.

comment by bertrand small (U19359)
posted 5 hours, 14 minutes ago
Brexit is great news for any working family in an already built up and overpopulated area that has suffered from an influx of European or other unskilled workers causing the salaries to stagnate over the last 5 years at least.
Multiculturalism is the biggest failed exercise this country has embarked on in the last 50 years and the accommodating nature of left leaning councils and authorities has contributed to the sense of isolation and ethnic enclaves up and down the country.
Opening borders 7 years before required was a total slap in the face to the British and settled migrant families already here. That can't be put right wholly by leaving the eu but it is a start that can help reduce the figures of net migration of over 300000 per year which even to those leafy living lefties can recognise is completely unsustainable in the major cities and has harmed many rural towns already.
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Well said.

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